Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Falling Loonie

is making new multi-year lows today....can't help but mention my call again to move the cash to USD. Canadians overall are going to feel really bad about the fall in loonie as pretty much all their assets have taken a significant beating on the world stage. The only saving grace is that we are doing better than the Australian dollar whose dollar has fallen more precipitously than ours.

To put things into perspective, from the days of parity:

those in cash are down about 17 per cent in USD terms.
those in TSX are down by about 35 per cent in CAD leading to a total USD decline of (.83*.65) around 46 per cent.
Those in Alberta real estate are down by about 20 per cent in CAD leading to a total decline of (.83*.8) around 33.5 per cent.

What will this do the Canadian consumer confidence? Not a whole lot of good. People will begin to feel poorer as months go by. The Canadian retailers can resume the blatant gouging without having to do any token service of bringing down the prices.

Most export businesses will be happy with this in as much as their revenue side will be intact(of course the slowdown in the US is the other impact, along with demand destruction for the oil patch) but their cost base just plummetted by a whopping 20 per cent or so. One of the big challenges of Canadian economic policy was just cured by markets in 15 days.

Where do you think the loonie is headed?

blog comments powered by Disqus
Real Estate Blogs - Blog Top Sites