GDP back to 2007 level

It just took 4 months to completely wipe out the 'growth' of last 2 years. January's GDP fell by an annualized 8.4%, taking the total GDP back to the levels last seen in 2006.




Is it possible that we'll undo the growth of the last 7 or 8 years of the debt fueled bubble before this is all over? I wouldn't rule that out?

In other news from closer home, the drilling industry is talking about utilization at levels last seen in the 1980s.
"It's similar to the downturn that we saw in the '80s," said Joe Bruce, chief operating officer at Nabors Canada, one of the biggest drillers in the country. Because of its position in the industry, Nabors expects to run 15 per cent of its fleet during breakup. It is currently at 21 per cent."

"Another conundrum concerns manpower: Faced with the traditional slack spring season, companies must decide how many workers will receive the traditional $140-a-day subsistence pay during annual training. It's a calculation that requires looking into the gloomy future and paring down staff levels to the bare minimum needed."

Wage deflation anyone? High unemployment?
If we are unwinding the excesses of last 8 to 10 years in virtually every domain, how will Alberta's residential and commercial real estate be any different? The bulls will get a chance to make their case in the comments, as usual.

Highest Unemployment in 6 years in Alberta

A while ago, I wrote a post, titled 5 years undone.
Some people did not appreciate it fully at that time. Perhaps they will now, as the decline in economic activity brought Alberta in tandem with the rest of the country. Unemployment in Feb was up to 5.4 %, the highest level in 6 years. That takes us back to 2003. This is officially 6 years of jobs gone, and we have not even started the real carnage. Double digit unemployment is very likely before the year is out.
While some people can continue to please (or amuse) themselves by looking at slight upticks in the daily or even monthly real estate prices, these numbers still do not reflect the underlying realities such as:

1. More stringent Lending standards.
   
2. Changed Employment picture -Normalcy is being restored in the market, from an 'employees' market to employers market.
   
3. Real Estate prices are still very high. If we have unwound to the unemployment levels of 2003, energy prices of 2003, why won't we unwind to real estate prices of 2003?
4. End of of euphoria. While the central banks are trying hard to inflate another bubble, it may not happen. Japan couldn't re inflate even when they had the good fortune of exporting to countries experiencing two booms (tech and housing) during the last ten years.
   

Have a good weekend everyone.

Predictions Made on this Blog

While the markets are doing what many on this blog have been saying for the last two years, it’s a good time to do a quick recap of how we have fared in the last two years on some of the predictions made on this blog:

1. Don’t buy Alberta Real Estate. The prices have fallen by around $100k for the average property since hitting the peak. That’s a good $800 per month for the next 25 years amortized over 25 years.Expect further weakness here and at least another $1000 per month hit over the next 25 years.
   
2. Commodities bust –There was a commodities bubble and it popped. It’s possible that we have not seen the bottom here, despite the steep declines in prices. Copper, Zinc, Uranium and almost every industrial commodity could be further impacted causing problems for Saskatchewan.
3. Higher Unemployment- This is the unfolding story. With current unemployment levels still too close to ‘full employment’ and service standards in Alberta still reminiscent of $150 oil and $10 natural gas days, a lot of pain has to begin in this area.
4. Falling Natural Gas- Back in January, I talked about the significance of natural gas to this province. The prices are still falling and we are sub $4 with natural gas. This will impact the profitability of big oil and gas in Calgary and provincial royalties. Back in 2002, natural gas was trading at around $2 or so. If we go there again, it’ll be a big problem.
5. Falling Loonie-Back in August 2008, when loonie was still trading at mid 90s, I asked, if long USD and short Alberta real estate will be a good trade? So far loonie has fallen by more than 25 per cent from the days of parity and Alberta real estate has lost around 20 per cent or so from the peak. It’s likely that we haven’t seen the end of these trends.Today the loonie closed at 4 year lows of sub 77 cent levels.
   
6. Decoupling is a myth- We are more tightly integrated than before, but decoupling has been the core argument of all commodities bulls and inflationists. So far it has been nothing more than a 'theory' like derivatives reduce risk in the financial system.
   

It’s entirely possible that these trends could change suddenly, but it doesn’t look very likely. This is not an investment advice either. You have to develop your own conviction about your economic worldview. Don’t rely on this blog. Don’t rely on Garth Turner (who incidentally does quite a bit of flip flop on the severity of recession, the $300 oil as soon as the recession ends, and that ‘depression won’t happen), Mish or anybody else. When you try to form your own worldview, don’t rely on the mainstream media and its poster boys. If everybody believes in what Mr Buffett says, it’s possible that his advice is now mainstream and may not reflect the underlying realities.

Your thoughts?

Recession, Oil Prices and Incogurence

Let's start with the headline of today-the Canadian recession. It's here and is gathering steam. The annualized quarterly number isn't so bad as compared to numbers of other countries, but let's not forget the lag effect. And if you recall, right until the end of October, most people were talking about recession as a 'US problem and not Canadian one.'
But if we were to annualize the December numbers, then our GDP shrank by a whopping 12 per cent. The GDP for November declined by 0.7 per cent. So for the last two months of 2008, the GDP declined by an astounding 10.2 per cent, a pretty bad showing indeed.
But this is a headline you are unlikely to find anywhere in the mainstream media as most people want to believe in the 'We are different', 'we are decoupled', 'our banks are solid' stuff.

M0ving on to oil...
There's something about oil that probably used to be the case with gold. I think several gold bugs are oil bugs now. Garth Turner for example. I like what he writes, at least most of the time, but I'm surprised how he can hold two incongruous viewpoints at the same time. He subscribes to the Peter Schiff hyperinflationary school perhaps.
On one hand he talks about falling economy, a potential depression, falling demand, job losses, massive unemployment and yet in face of that he also talks of $100 oil and a rising stock market. How is that possible? Unless he expects the recession to be short and mild, profits are not rising. And unless job recovery quickly takes hold, there will be a severe demand destruction for oil. The Chindia story is pretty much on hold, if not entirely dead, with Indian economy growing at barely 5 per cent or so in the last quarter. So what will cause a sudden spike in the oil prices? And if oil does indeed rise to $100, then at least one part of Canadian economy will continue to function nicely and that is Alberta. The oilsands investments will resume, the Canadian government and Alberta government's revenue projections won't be so bad and maritimers will flock to Alberta again. Happy days will return to Alberta and the speculators will rejoice once again. But in the face of grimmest economic news in the generation, is it likely to happen? I don't think so.

In similar vein, the oracle of Omaha who seems to be losing his way, says in his annual report that oil prices in $40 or $50 range are too low. Is he just trying to rationalize his purchae of ConocoPhilips? Or is there anything deeper in that statement.
If you recall Mr Buffett visited Albertan Oil Sands in August/September last year. At that time he had remarked (paraphrasing)"You could be the best mining engineer in the world but if you are not sure that oil prices will stay high, then oil sands investments may not be worthwhile."
Again, if thinks $40-$50 oil is not a good price, then why didn't he invest in oil sands? I find that Mr Buffett is now singing the same songs as the mainstream media about inflation, 'cash is trash', 'buy and hold forever', 'stocks are for long run' and so forth. Which is quite a departure from his old days of value investing that was clearly visible during the dot com days.

In other news, the Feburary Calgary Real Estate numbers don't stink too much. Sales, prices, days on market and pretty much all metrics are down with respect to last year.

Few will escape this unscathed

Residents of Alberta island, especially those with strong vested interests in high commodity and real estate prices are about to wake up to a harsh reality. The falling prices of oil were affecting the future prosperity and project based construction and engineering employment. But now there’s another potentially dangerous animal circling on top of Alberta economy-falling natural gas prices.

A lot of people don’t pay much attention to natural gas prices, but they are the bread and butter of the province, especially of big corporate in Calgary and the provincial government royalties. Oil royalties are merely a drop in bucket as compared to what the Alberta government collects from natural gas (by a factor of 6).

Today natural gas prices fell to 2 year lows of around $5. Should the natural gas prices fall further, as they just might in face of severe demand contraction, there will be massive further fallout from this in provincial government and corporate employment levels in the province.

Natural gas business is the cash cow for most businesses in the province while oil sands was the future growth business.

The growth business is now in dumpster and the cash cow will likely come under severe duress. There’s no way this will have a happy ending for the provincial economy.

Right now it’s hard to find a sector of economy that is booming or even going steady, bankruptcy specialists excepted.

If worldwide demand continues to fall across the board as it has, there’s no one that will escape unscathed.

Despite a significant fall in the oil prices, there was a noticeable decline in consumption of gasoline in the first week of this year. Unemployed people don't take skiing trips , take extended vacations or go for frequent shopping trips to the mall. Those who are fearful of losing their jobs show similar behavior.

Everything ranging from dental hygienists to entertainers will feel the pinch of this slowdown. A lot of demand of everything in last several years was just as fictitious as the NINJA loans and demand for virtually everything is falling apart worldwide. In face of this, Canada’s (and Australia, Brazil, New Zealand’s ) economy cannot remain insulated.

It wouldn’t take a genius to figure out what a further collapse in commodity prices will do to Canadian economy and Alberta real estate.

Those who are contemplating buying in this environment at ridiculously inflated prices will have severe cases of post purchase dissonance for many years.

Five years undone

Readers of Bill Booner’s daily missive will recognize a term that he widely used during last five years or so. He used to call the boom as a ‘crack boom.’ A boom in which nothing useful was created but everything was merely an illusion. Just like an eastern scripture says, ‘all that is visible is illusory.’ There was illusion of wealth and prosperity.Of achievement and triumph. Of mastering the business cycle by artificial setting of interest rates by a committee.

And now with oil falling below $35, we have undone almost 4.5 years of speculative and artificial demand of a product that would have made Alberta and Canada the Energy superpower of the world. Demand that was fostered by free credit, rampant speculation and excessive greed. Demand that disappeared as soon as the Hummers were repossessed, the McMansions foreclosed and factories closed down in China.

Too bad, that in one stroke OPEC agreed to reduce the oil production by the entire projected supply of the Oil Sands (by 2020).

This morning sitting in my office with a windchill of -35 outside, I am just wondering how could so many people around the world have been so naïve. The naiveté varied across cultures, continents and locales, based on some sort of fundamental underlying belief that ‘we are different.’ The 'weather in California', 'oil sands in Alberta', ‘Olympics in Vancouver’, ‘Microsoft/Boeing Economy of Seattle’, ‘BRIC magic of Mumbai’, ‘Manufacturing prowess of China’, ‘Financial juggernaut of London’….the list is endless. Every city had its own way of overpowering reason and common sense.

And now, we have to confront reality.

The consequences won’t be pretty. As most of Canada and several parts of the US go through a major cold weather streak, I can’t help but think what would have happened to natural gas prices if this were year 2005 or 2007. But then, until the ‘master thieves of universe’ started placing massive bets in the commodity markets on 50 to 1 leveraged funds, periods of massive spikes and volatility in prices were few and far between. Peak oil was merely an interesting theory and not a call to action for the doomsday crowd. Yet, a good majority of people who believed in a housing bubble did not believe there was a commodity bubble. Or bubble in oil and gas.

The entire Alberta Government and the oil and gas chieftains of Calgary or Houston did not believe that oil prices will fall again. But time and again, the unbridled optimism of investors and market participants is undone by Mr Market. This time is no different. Many on this blog ridiculed me for being a pessimist and believer in gloom and doom. Reflecting on this, I think I had been too optimistic for I did not know the extent of corruption, fraud and deceit in the underlying financial economy.

The reality of Alberta’s economy is that it is entirely dependent on the Energy sector. Once the energy sector slows down, as it is now, everything else will follow. Foreclosures, lay offs, bankruptcies will all rise leading to the prairie land version of rust belt. At least until the next wave of liquidity lifts the sunken boats of commodities. And the coming months and years will illustrate how inane the claims of diversified Alberta economy were.And perhaps for next few decades people will think numerous times before spending half a million dollars on a tiny shoe box.

Happy holidays to everyone.

Weekend Open Thread

I woke up this morning to hear not so positive news on so many fronts. The chicken are coming home to roost now and the years of credit excesses, leverage, denial, 'Greenspan Put' and speculation are clearly hurting the mainstream economies both in Canada and the US.

• US unemployment rose by over a whopping half a million. Worst since 1982. Bye Bye Goldilocks economy. Bye Bye quick recovery.
  
• Canadian unemployment rose by 77,000, a much worse number than the US if we account for population.
  
• The West is fairing better at this time, but it's only a matter of time. Layoffs are occurring at GE, Jacobs etc and the full effect of the ensuing commodity bust is only starting to getting felt.
• Oil is at $43 and more importantly natural gas is below $6. A fall to $25 and $4 will kill the economy of West in a replay of 1982. But 1982 will look like a picnic as compared to what's unfolding right now. Just for perspective, the 1982 recession was 18 months long. This recession is already 12 months old and until recently leading economists did not even admit that there was a recession. And Canada is only in a 'technical recession' as per our esteemed leaders. Expect things to get much worse on the employment front with a double digit unemployment rate a very real possibility.
  
• With manufacturing tanking and the commodities bust about to show its ramifications, what's going to happen to the real estate? Not a very pretty picture.
  
• The bust is here. It can't be wished away and most readers of this blog knew what was coming. Yet a few delusional ones bought and even had the chutzpah to lure others into buying by making specious arguments. With a grim employment picture, it won't take much convincing to anyone to put off buying homes. Or will it? When people have sleepless nights before signing on the mortgage papers and committing themselves to a debt for 25 years, we'll know the market has become normal.
  
• Finally, the loonie is down to 77 cents and change. The true companion of $25 oil would be a 65 cents loonie. So much for the collapse of USD.
• And here's a little bit of humour on this otherwise gloomy news day(from Calculated Risk blog comment post):
  

Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.

Have a great weekend everyone.

$50 Oil is here....

and is very likely to overshoot on the downside. Is $40 or even $30 possible. Why not? If 3 months ago anyone questioned that oil could go below $60, he or she was termed fool, like several posters here. Too bad people have such short memories. Even the champions of doom and gloom such as Garth Turner buys into 'higher long term energy costs' while we are in an ocean of deflation. But just yesterday, the DOT reported that the number of miles driven has fallen by around 5 per cent in the US in September. People are now saying, "anytime you drive your vehicle and it's not for work, you are wasting money." Ouch. With the prospect of a multi year bust and double digit unemployment, where is the demand for oil going to come from? The Chindia bull is dead for the moment, but who knows.
In the mean time, our province faces more fundamental problems- What will Alberta do once the oil sands engine is cold? Not much. All the diversification attempts have come to a naught with a merciless exodus given to all non oil and gas companies. Intutit, Dell, TD Call Center and many more have left the province(or even Canada).
Now that the bubble inflated by artificial supply of credit and fake demand for worldwide commodities has burst, are we going to revert to our core competency of selling cheap manufactured goods to the US, attracting US tourists based on a 70 cent loonie and handing out film tax credits? It should not be outside the realm of possiblitiy. It was after all only 4 short years ago that Dell when opening its Edmonton location even refused to pay for training its new recruits. Such was the state of desperation for new jobs in Edmonton. Any big corporation will now be extremely reluctant to take advantage of massive unemployment and cheap loonie anywhere in Alberta after our success in driving out most non-energy companies out of here. And for that, the primary reason was wage inflation driven by high cost of living created primarily by the high cost of housing. Perhaps Alberta government should do something about reining in the speculation in Real estate based on subsidized mortgage products.

Welcome to the New World

We are back after spending a week in the US. The US has changed quite a bit since our last visit almost a year ago. From waitresses in Manchester, New Hampshire who offered suggestions on getting special combo deals for breakfast as ‘every cent counts’, to the sales clerks in Wrentham, MA who hugged me to buy lots of things on the Veteran days sales, it seems like the deflation reflected only in the asset prices so far has finally found its way into consumer items as well. Hotels have become a lot cheaper as well. We stayed in decent Holiday Inn and Mariott rooms for less than $70. Of course, unlike most Canadian hotels, these were large, nicely furnished rooms with flat screen TVs and included breakfast. In booming West though, you only get a roof over your head for this much price, that is if you are lucky.

A retail sales associate in Nashua mall checked on me at least three times to make sure I found what I was looking for. Obviously, with low sales volumes, everybody is scared of losing their job. And what better way to ensure job security than actually doing what you are paid for! What a novel concept. I don’t really recall sales reps being this good in the last ten years. Of course, Albertans are still living in their fantasy land and the nonchalance of sales reps is still very conspicuous in almost every place where I shop. While taking the delivery of my Accord I casually asked the sales manager if their sales were declining and she remarked, “Yeah, there’s a little slow down, as some people see all this gloom in the US and get worried. But it’s their economy and not Canadian economy!”
Of course, she will be learning some painful lessons in economics and firmly grasp that ‘we are all dependent on the US economy’ the coming months as oil prices drop below $50 in the coming weeks and months.
A friend of mine who has family in India says things are getting gloomier there by the day. Perusal of the economic press there talks about major reduction in workforce, fall in real estate, stocks and pretty much every other asset class.
Remember the decoupling theory? Nobody wants to talk about it anymore. It is in graveyard along with the titans of Wall street. It was the ray of hope for the world after the US housing bust, even though the entire world’s growth was piggybacked on the insatiable US (and perhaps other first world) consumers. Remember India was going to save Alberta. And China too. Now that these countries are looking for their own saviors, who is going to save Alberta? Yes, the OPEC production cuts. But didn't we have the second largest reserves in the world? Can't we do something about it? I guess almost every oil company is going to do something about it and the answer won't be to the liking of anyone whose fortunes are tied to high oil prices.

When I look back at things, I could never have imagined they would get this bad. I thought the biggest swindlers and crooks on Wall Street still had everything in control. But I guess with TARP firmly showing up on their balance sheets, they couldn’t care less for the fate of the main street or the rest of the world.

In the coming months and years(hope not), those who possess cash will be in a lot better shape than those who don't. The inflationary period characterized by too much money chasing too few goods (houses, stocks, oil, cars, labour, art work, RVs, boats, carry trade currencies) is definitely over. In the new world, cold cash will rein supreme and those who possess it will have the upper hand over those who have no cash but possess too much of stuff (stocks, cars, houses, debt, art work, RVs, boats etc). The latter group unfortunately represents bulk of world’s population today (exceptions in some parts of Europe, Asia etc).
Too bad nobody in Canada will wake anyone up on what’s about to be unleashed on everyone pretty soon-government hiring cuts, tax hikes (GST going back to 7%, when?), budget deficits, falling loonie, house prices cut in half, high unemployment….
After all, it's only today that the economists in the US have managed to agree that the US is in a recession. So much for the foresight and wisdom of the dismal scientists.
The list is long and painful. Only those who were characterized as the doom and gloomers (including yours truly) who have had nothing but cash in their account for the last several years have been proven right. Not that I’m happy about it.

The Princes of Alberta Island are now running scared....

as Suncor cuts its spending by a third. Yes, a whopping third.
“Our aim is to ensure we are living within our means during a time of market uncertainty, while also making the strategic spending decisions that will allow us to continue our growth path,” Suncor chief executive officer Rick George said in a news release.

Living within our means, how relevant and appropriate. Expect something similar from all the oil sands majors, minors and the expectants. Consumer spending will be the next shoe to drop in a big way even as the falling loonie makes big tickets purchases even more expensive. And the signs of it are clearly imprinted in the August Sales report.

"Alberta was the only province in the country in August to register an annual decline in retail sales."

Any specific reason? I think it's got everything to do with the MEW(or the house ATM or the home equity loans). Alberta was the only province to have registered an YOY decline by August this year and we can see how phony the 'growth story' was. It was never the oil money as we had been clamoring but the retail spending and construction money. Very much like in other parts of the world.

This can't bode well for the $400k shoe boxes in the prairie land, on either side of Lloydminister.

Right now, the loonie is in a free fall and so are oil prices. The other 'kings of the world', Goldman et.al are chopping their workforce by 10 per cent....I think this is just the first step in cuts that will deep, prolonged and painful.

I consider myself to be bearish, but the rapid rate of fall of crude oil, stocks, loonie and everything other than USD has shocked even me. But I can't say there were no warnings.

What Now?

I’m not a big fan of doomsday scenarios, but what has transpired in last week is nothing less than astonishing. The markets worldwide are in free fall. Loonie just lost 10 cents in a week (my call of going into USD was pretty good I think). The shine is about to wear off of the strength of the Canadian economy. The commodities will fall further and could push Western Canada into a deep slump. Ironically, Eastern Canada could benefit again in the backdrop of a weaker loonie. This scenario is increasingly likely to play out as the deflationary forces strengthen their grip on world economy and hapless central bankers and debt ridden governments and consumers watch the show like meek spectators.

Master Card recently recorded a 9.5 per cent fall in US gasoline sales in September 2008 versus last year’s numbers. Canadian sales held up a little better and were down only 5.4 per cent in August. I won't be surprised if sales fall further off in the coming months. October is likely to be worse. People who have just taken a 50 per cent of more haircut on their 401k and RRSP’s won’t exactly be jumping out to vacations and burn gasoline in gas guzzlers. Don’t expect Asia to be savior either-Japan is falling into its gazillionth recession in the last 20 years, China is slowing down and India isn’t fairing too nicely either.
As unemployment rises further in the US (some people are forecasting a double digit unemployment rate by the time everything settles), there will be further reduction in gasoline and commodity demand. This demand destruction will outstrip any, if at all, demand increases from the emerging economies.

The big questions are- if the clock rewinds to 2004 in terms of asset prices, commodity prices and job opportunities are you sufficiently prepared? Can anyone even imagine another bust in Alberta when most of the people around you are drowning in debt and falsely insulated by the 'home equity' gains. Or by the illusion of 'secure jobs' in the Oil/Gas industries and pretty much everything else that services it. I can't think of any industry that will pick up the slack employment wise if Oil and Gas sector fizzles again. The government depends too much on the tax and royalty revenues that basically stem from the oil and gas industry.
Too bad that Alberta manages to kill all the diversification that occurs during the bust years in less than 3 years of a boom…

People are mad as hell....

...and they are showing it. On the momentous occasion of another attempted bailout in the house, a couple of clips that behoove the situation.





In other news, commodity bust is enjoying eating the TSX gains made during last few years. Are we back to 2005 yet?
While the gloom and doom spreads around us, remember that we'll be presented with some great once in a generation opportunities in the coming months and years. Stay put in cash (preferably at ATB) and when everyone is running for covers, it will be time to buy. But we are far from it in Alberta real estate yet.

Global Demand Slowdown

...is happening at a fast pace. Canada has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the boom in China, India and other fast growing emerging economies. But it looks like something is finally beginning to give in after years (or decades) of relentless growth.
Here's an interesting link on how Chinese importers are defaulting on Iron Ore purchases from India:
"Our exports are in deep red as there is no demand from China," said Rahul Baldota, president of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries and managing director of miner MSPL Ltd.
Exports in the first half of September dropped to 1.99 million tonnes from 2.7 million tonnes in the same period last year.

FT is also reporting on the same item as well.

At least a few in Canada are taking notice of this:

That may sound like a manageable slowdown, but if China's economy hits any serious roadblocks, it won't take long for Canadian investors to start feeling the pain, given that nearly half of the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index is made up of resource stocks.

Island of Alberta should remain intact in the financial maelstrom though. Just ask any realtor or mortgage broker trying to lure the 'greatest fools' into a 0 down 40 year mortgage.

Credit Destruction

…is here and in full force. It’s most certainly a deflationary event. The credit markets' tale of wanton and greed of last couple of decades is now ending with a bang and I’m not sure if we have reached the grand finale. Oil is already below $100, peak oil, China etc notwithstanding.
Not incidentally, China, which was growing at a blistering pace of over 10 per cent growth for the last gazillion years has eased its interest rates for the first time.
If we witness wealth and credit destruction of historic proportions, expect commodities to tumble to unimaginably low levels. Most financial institutions in the world have their balance sheets seriously impaired and the banks fighting for their survival don't make loans on overvalued, deprecating assets (aka housing).
If you think the housing sector is about to recover in the US and Canada will escape unscathed, wake up.
Enough said on this early Monday morning. A lot more influential people around the world will chip in much more valuable stuff.
Your comments?