Thursday, April 9, 2009

Employment numbers tell the real story

...and it's being told in a not so straight forward manner. I find it interesting that the custodians of all the stats of our country have to resort to dubious math such as following:

20 full time jobs lost + 5 part time jobs gained = net loss of 15 jobs.

May be it has always been their way of reporting, but it does not paint the real picture. Part time jobs can't pay for mortgage in PEI, let alone in Calgary.

But of course, this is an attempt to make the headline number all the better and lure the masses into complacency.

Given the above equation, it's very interesting that the first line of the stats can report is this:

"Employment declined by 61,000 in March, all in full-time work."

whereas it should really be: Full time employment declined by 79,000 while part time employment increased by 28000.

Now where in the Statscan report do they mention the 79,000 figure because it represents the real picture. This is not unlike the local real estate boards registering the seasonal uptick in sales volume as new evidence of a booming or balanced market.

Closer home to Alberta, we registered another 20,000 loss in real, full time jobs, about 5000 more than that reported by Stats Can in their commentary. Once again, they add the part time jobs gain to the full time loss and arrive at a reduced figure. Our unemployment is up to 5.8%.

Going forward, expect at least 10 to 12 per cent unemployment nation wide. The repercussions for the real estate industry won't be pretty, as we have said many times in the past.

Have a good long weekened everyone!
blog comments powered by Disqus
Real Estate Blogs - Blog Top Sites