Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Is the beginning of the second leg down in prices?

Residential Sales plummeted across the board in Edmonton and Calgary last month. The first drop in prices last summer was preceded by a sharp contraction in sales volumes from the bubble level sales.

While condos in both Edmonton and Calgary saw a sharp drop in prices, an across the board massive drop in value hasn’t occurred yet. Like a ten per cent fall in SFH values in Calgary or Edmonton in a month.

With the psychologically important oil prices below $50 and environmental pressures mounting in the face of an ultra liberal government, oil sands might not be the saviour of Alberta Real Estate after all.

If sales fall further in December from the levels seen last year, it’s possible that we are now going to see the second leg down for the real estate prices. And if the macro economic picture and commodity bust unfolds as I’m afraid it might, the spring bounce that so many sellers and realtors are counting on (yet again) will be more ephemeral than a mayfly.

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