Tuesday, November 6, 2007

But we are different....

and fiascoes like those at Citibank, Merrill, Goldman and CIBC can't really affect the Alberta market. Or Canada in general. May be because, the chicken haven't come home to roost yet. I guess it's just a matter of time.
A satirical look at the whole mortgage meltdown has become very popular on the net and explains very simply how trillions of dollars were bet on the ability of 'some less than stellar' credit worthy individuals. And wall street partied on for last several years declaring mega bonuses to the bosses down to associates and secretaries.
A year ago if someone had questioned that solvency of one of the biggest banks in the world would become an issue due to mortgage problems, it would have been met with derision and contempt.
Can something similar to this happen in Canada, say a year from now? Can it happen at all? Or are we indeed so different that our flippers who own scores of properties really a lot smarter (or luckier) than their US counterparts. May be. Or our banks are really paragons of 'risk management' and moderation and do/did not venture into the unchartered territories? Only time will tell. But be on the watch out for any potential issues in the Canadian mortgage market as well. And for all those 'jealous renters' who are bubble sitting, don't keep more than $100k in any single account to ensure CIDC coverage. We are different, but the extent of speculation in our markets will become clear only when the music stops.

Closer to home, Edmonton numbers are out, and they are quite bad. Of course, those looking for silver lining and some final straws of strength will find that row houses' average price increased. But for everything else, median and average prices fell, as expected. Edmonton too is coming pretty close to surrendering most of its gains made during 2007. Average and Median prices are somewhere between the February and March levels seen this year. Which means all those who rushed out to buy during March, April, May....until last month are in the red.
And roughly 35% of Edmonton's inventory is vacant, which means the rental deals are going to get sweeter and prices will continue to fall.
Higher oil prices of course mean nothing due to the spectacular performance of the loonie. If government isn't raking a whole lot of royalty more due to higher prices, it's not very likely that industry is fairing any better. And natural gas of course is a different story altogether.

A few years from now when dust has settled, and inventory levels do not generate any curiosity amongst the masses, people will probably be astonished at what some of the Edmonton properties sold for in 2006 and 2007. And how thousands of people were sucked into buying properties at obscene valuations.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Real Estate Blogs - Blog Top Sites