tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post7261268032717165820..comments2023-09-10T03:39:48.166-07:00Comments on Alberta Bubble: A view from a few years agoUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-8430220957988302372007-06-20T07:40:00.000-07:002007-06-20T07:40:00.000-07:00dali,Im sure that the stat was after tax for house...dali,<BR/><BR/>Im sure that the stat was after tax for households and not individuals because Ontario was not far behind at 59K. Either way affordability is getting worse.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-60601873036035813892007-06-20T06:48:00.000-07:002007-06-20T06:48:00.000-07:00How about this: 2 huge Bear Stearns hedge funds l...How about this: 2 huge Bear Stearns hedge funds look like they will collapse shortly...these funds were largely backed by subprive mortgages. The implications for this are potenitally huge. If wall street loses the intrest or ability to buy mortgage backed debt from the banks and mortgage houses....watch how high mortgage rates go. Today should be interesting on the markets.<BR/><BR/>Bet no one saw this coming a few years ago...not Bear Stearns anyway.ronniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08647402568132078965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-35001347742671688282007-06-20T05:02:00.000-07:002007-06-20T05:02:00.000-07:00This is a post from Sheldon Johnston on his Edmont...This is a post from Sheldon Johnston on his Edmonton Real Estate Blog...<BR/><BR/>"The income stats I've seen at statscan say the after tax income for an albertan is 61,600." <BR/><BR/>I find that to be deceiving as well, there is no way the average Albertan makes $90+ G's a year gross income. Not even close!Dalihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04369213400076173427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-45134312276162141642007-06-20T04:38:00.000-07:002007-06-20T04:38:00.000-07:00bear Clicking on your link. That's quite the decep...bear<BR/><BR/> Clicking on your link. That's quite the deception going on in Victoria and Langford. So it's not only Alberta.Dalihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04369213400076173427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-33925350364823960562007-06-20T04:16:00.000-07:002007-06-20T04:16:00.000-07:00Bearclaw —I'm not sure how this small firm gathers...Bearclaw —<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure how this small firm gathers their data but assume they have been convinced by a web firm for an elaborate dynamic link setup of some sort. <BR/><BR/>At 7:11 am E.S.T. here's their latest stats:<BR/><BR/>Data Last Updated June 20, 2007, 4:42 am<BR/>Total Properties 8245 - Res 3711 - Condo - 2011<BR/><BR/>I would provide the link but fear this feature of their site would disappear ala the CREB model. You know how it is — "the paranoids are out to get me."Pop!Fizzle!https://www.blogger.com/profile/12078928605894608486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-10956745221097364242007-06-19T21:59:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:59:00.000-07:00squid,how's this for deception?squid,<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://victoriastruth.blogspot.com/2007/06/deception.html" REL="nofollow">how's this for deception?</A>BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-52943107275022862742007-06-19T21:39:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:39:00.000-07:00deceptionthats whydeception<BR/>thats whysquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-17076084973806103082007-06-19T21:36:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:36:00.000-07:00The layer of confusion about changing the stats se...<I>The layer of confusion about changing the stats seems like convenient timing.</I><BR/><BR/>What rots my socks is that they conveniently got rid of the statistics archives at the same time. No looking back to the past. Why?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-36229715865568081982007-06-19T21:31:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:31:00.000-07:00rbc says it now takes an income of $92,000 to buy ...rbc says it now takes an income of $92,000 to buy a home in calgary<BR/><BR/>what dose the avg calgarian make ?<BR/><BR/><BR/>avg price is what the avg family can afford<BR/>no way dose the avg calgary family make $92,000squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-34076417859861884222007-06-19T21:24:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:24:00.000-07:00squid,I am a child of the 80s and I guess I am mor...squid,<BR/><BR/>I am a child of the 80s and I guess I am more jaded and don't expect as much from a greasy trade organization.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-31015867511854994912007-06-19T21:18:00.002-07:002007-06-19T21:18:00.002-07:00consistantconsistantsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-6387553092429620252007-06-19T21:18:00.001-07:002007-06-19T21:18:00.001-07:00And the DOM is of properties that have sold not th...And the DOM is of properties that have sold not the lingering ones.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-22447069063630359152007-06-19T21:18:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:18:00.000-07:00"fine print being the changed mythology regarding ..."fine print being the changed mythology regarding area and included housing types"<BR/>sorry<BR/>i dont get that<BR/><BR/>housing stats should be clear/accurate and consistance<BR/>talking in riddles is for con-mensquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-76392360115973245492007-06-19T21:13:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:13:00.000-07:00squid,Fine print being the changed methodology reg...squid,<BR/><BR/>Fine print being the changed methodology regarding area and included housing types.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-15674113413511664692007-06-19T21:08:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:08:00.000-07:00and the fine print says what ?stats may or may not...and the fine print says what ?<BR/>stats may or may not be factual ?<BR/><BR/>bottom line<BR/>this market has been toast for 3 months it will become apparant by august<BR/>the correction will be swift and severe<BR/>avoiding a crash is almost impossible<BR/>interest rates will go up in july and sept<BR/>thus crushing mortgage renewals and new purchases<BR/>2002 interest rates were approx 4% renewals will be in the 8-9% range<BR/>that equates into a $5,000 yearly payment increase per $100,000 owed<BR/>this is not going to hurt the housing industry<BR/>it will cause a fatal injury<BR/>td banks 5 yr closed mortgage is set at 7.44% today that will be at least 8.5-9.5%by year endsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-51768598081945372442007-06-19T21:03:00.000-07:002007-06-19T21:03:00.000-07:00squid,I suppose they would to hype the market. Bu...squid,<BR/><BR/>I suppose they would to hype the market. But really they just need to issue a press release and the media will just copy and paste it including the headline. They can change the methodology and add fine print and still be in the clear. In Edmonton at least prices HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASING (up till May at least) so they would have no need to doctor them.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-87764161523309692982007-06-19T20:57:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:57:00.000-07:00"rbc is avg over the first 3 months on bench mark ..."rbc is avg over the first 3 months on bench mark homes so it might be lower"<BR/><BR/>yeah about $70,000 lower on condos<BR/>and about $90,000 on sfh<BR/><BR/>of course they are not manipulating the stats<BR/><BR/>after all why would they ?squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-7865686183367701922007-06-19T20:52:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:52:00.000-07:00squids,RBC is averaged over the first quarter and ...squids,<BR/><BR/>RBC is averaged over the first quarter and for benchmark homes and so it may be lower. <BR/><BR/>I don't think CREB is outright manipulating the numbers. The layer of confusion about changing the stats seems like convenient timing. However, I think they are accurately reporting what they say they are once you read the fine print. But i guess we don't really know do we. <BR/><BR/>Got tinfoil hat?BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-45697627194460709842007-06-19T20:43:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:43:00.000-07:00it would seem condos/townhouses/duplexes are all c...it would seem condos/townhouses/duplexes are all crammed into the condo price<BR/>where realtors are weighted most heavily in speculation<BR/><BR/>gotta love the crebsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-34292816811502943642007-06-19T20:39:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:39:00.000-07:00thanks bearclawcuriousrbc states that the avg sell...thanks bearclaw<BR/>curious<BR/>rbc states that the avg selling price of a calgary condo q1 2007 @ $261,000 and bungalow @ $402,000<BR/>who you gonna believe<BR/>the creb<BR/>or the banksquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-74322451162784848422007-06-19T20:38:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:38:00.000-07:00squidly,The Edmonton Journal has TWO inserts in th...squidly,<BR/><BR/>The Edmonton Journal has TWO inserts in their paper on Sunday. New Homes and New Condos. 'nuff said.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-66237067044073109022007-06-19T20:21:00.000-07:002007-06-19T20:21:00.000-07:00popfizz,May report In May there were 4485 resident...popfizz,<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.ereb.com/marketactivity/May2007.html" REL="nofollow">May report </A><BR/><BR/>In May there were 4485 residential properties available according to this report. Do you know if your numbers covers the same set. Is this condo + residential? That would put it at 5710 already half a month later. <BR/><BR/>I expect decreasing year over year sales to start soon. I think this is when things become interesting. Why will sales slow?<BR/><BR/>1. Net migration is stabilizing at high levels or even declining somewhat. I heard that 2007 will have slightly less net migration compared to 2006. Some stats show this with net migration negative for the first time with respect to Saskatchewan. Note this isn't doomsday negativity - I am still talking positive net migration. Going back to 2006 levels would be a drop in sales of 10%. Back to 2005 would be a another drop of 22%.<BR/><BR/>2. Demand being borrowed from the future. There are two ways in which this has been the case. Young people getting in earlier than they would have otherwise to avoid losing out on further appreciation. Also loans that allow people to become homeowners earlier than they would have otherwise.<BR/><BR/>3. Even with higher incomes affordability worsened considerably. This will slow demand. Note Edmonton's affordability is worse now than it has been historically (except early 80s) according to these charts. This report also lags somewhat and does not include most recent price increases and higher mortgage rates. <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf" REL="nofollow"> link </A>BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-59388385176321315862007-06-19T19:53:00.000-07:002007-06-19T19:53:00.000-07:00big timei have always said thatfor what ever reaso...big time<BR/>i have always said that<BR/>for what ever reason the media will not challenge the creb<BR/><BR/>would you trust car sales data to car salesman<BR/><BR/>but the media qoutes housing data as reported by housing salesman <BR/><BR/>go figuresquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/13337481129318070886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-26050345436068506152007-06-19T19:42:00.000-07:002007-06-19T19:42:00.000-07:00The 'Old Boy's Club' at CREB should be pressured b...The 'Old Boy's Club' at CREB should be pressured by the local media to show the honest numbers NOW!<BR/>The showing of only Single Family Homes is covering something up!sunshinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10860907742700989860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-64827091341465313642007-06-19T19:31:00.000-07:002007-06-19T19:31:00.000-07:00I remember reading some pump somewhere recently th...I remember reading some pump somewhere recently that your home was increasing $450 dollars a day. One of those video's by pop!fizzle!showed the same thing, well almost the same, a $350 dollar a day increase before it all caved in. Very similar scary comparison unfolding.Dalihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04369213400076173427noreply@blogger.com