tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post3219071146890779125..comments2023-09-10T03:39:48.166-07:00Comments on Alberta Bubble: They are a persistent bunch....Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-78786453057106688082008-10-01T08:21:00.000-07:002008-10-01T08:21:00.000-07:00Mr. Neil, it's me, but I prefer "arrogant twit" to...Mr. Neil, it's me, but I prefer "arrogant twit" to that nasty phrase you called me, "pompous ass" (I'm really quite sensitive and I cried for hours ... NOT).<BR/><BR/>jim_s, regarding "<I>In an interview last week, Mr. Sparrow said he has been “brutally honest” with clients, telling them that if they want to sell, they'll have to price their properties realistically.</I>" ...<BR/><BR/>I've seen his name in an earlier article ... the press has decided they like to quote this guy? For a realtor I like him because there's a better sense of market reality in what he says, and I certainly prefer him to the stats guy, good old what's-his-name. <BR/><BR/>www.jimsparrow.com doesn't have much in the way of stats, but the big trends are there under "market trends". So maybe I'll pass his name around ... (not that anybody is buying these days)arrogant twithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16086419945058604195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-63011516383437120902008-09-30T21:04:00.000-07:002008-09-30T21:04:00.000-07:00And in Edmonton, where prices in July fell 5.3 per...<I> And in Edmonton, where prices in July fell 5.3 per cent from a year ago, the city's real estate board felt compelled to urge calm. "Edmonton's resale housing market is not 'plunging,' " the board said in a terse statement. "There is no cause for concern." <B>Of course, when you issue a press release insisting there's no reason to panic, that's often a reason to panic.</B> </I><BR/><BR/>->Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-52530165657077762152008-09-30T20:59:00.000-07:002008-09-30T20:59:00.000-07:00Know the truth.Calgary has had 1,674 new listings ...Know the truth.<BR/><BR/><I>Calgary has had 1,674 new listings in the past 14 days, and 1,628 price reductions, according to information compiled by Mr. Sparrow. The city currently has 8,553 active listings, and 837 units have been sold in the past 14 days.<BR/><BR/>In an interview last week, Mr. Sparrow said he has been “brutally honest” with clients, telling them that if they want to sell, they'll have to price their properties realistically.<BR/><BR/>The average price of a resale home in Canada declined by 4.6 per cent year over year in August, according to CREA's report, which expands on data about the country's major markets released in the middle of September.<BR/><BR/>The dollar volume of sales fell 5.5 per cent to $11-billion in August from the previous month, with fewer sales in British Columbia responsible for more than half of that decline, CREA said.<BR/><BR/>“We can't recall a press release of these data with less ebullient commentary than [Tuesday's],” observed Merrill Lynch & Co. economist David Wolf.<BR/><BR/>The level of new listings across Canada moderated month over month in August in every city but Saskatchewan, although supply still greatly exceeded demand in several cities.<BR/><BR/></I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080930.wmeltdownhousing01/GIStory/" REL="nofollow">Canadian Housing Sales Slow as Market Sags</A><BR/><BR/>->Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-80069685521582131252008-09-30T14:32:00.000-07:002008-09-30T14:32:00.000-07:00Differences between the Canadian and U.S. economie...Differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies.<BR/><BR/>The U.S. economy has undergone a remarkable resurgence since the mid-1990s with accelerating growth in output, labour productivity, and total factor productivity. Jorgenson (2002) has shown that information technology has been an important driving force in the revival of the American economy. Canadian economic performance has also improved dramatically during the late 1990s. However, there are important differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies, especially in the relative importance of industries producing information technology (IT) equipment and software. <BR/><BR/>-----------<BR/><BR/>Mobin<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.drivenwide.com" REL="nofollow">Link bulider</A>dashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16542167142165723166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-1593807865219553402008-09-30T14:12:00.000-07:002008-09-30T14:12:00.000-07:00-Perhaps it's best to start with the good news. Th...-<BR/><I>Perhaps it's best to start with the good news. The sudden slowdown in Canada's housing market in recent months could simply turn out to be a hiccup. The carnage racking real estate markets around the world might yet spare this country similar pain. And tighter lending standards affecting first-time homebuyers might not knock the foundation out from beneath Canadian house prices. Or maybe, after living through one of the wildest housing booms this country has ever seen, the whole bonanza could be about to completely unravel. For nervous homeowners sitting on a lot of pricey real estate, it's increasingly difficult to tell if the glass is half full, or completely empty.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.macleans.ca/business/markets/article.jsp?content=20080924_24660_24660" REL="nofollow">It could happen here</A><BR/><BR/>Not in Alberta. Right?<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-46193792877006007052008-09-30T13:20:00.000-07:002008-09-30T13:20:00.000-07:00-What's finally failed – and what the commentators...-<BR/><I>What's finally failed – and what the commentators are really wailing about when they talk about the end of capitalism – is government. In the West, the voters have made a little deal with the governments. We never wrote it down anywhere, but it went something like this.<BR/><BR/>"You, the government, can do pretty much what you want. You can spend our taxes on destructive social engineering programs. You can use our money to spread democracy to other countries. You can collect as much data as you like on us and allow it to be used and abused by every pen-pusher in the civil service. <BR/><BR/>"We'll let you do all that, with barely a murmur of dissent. All we ask for in return, is that you make sure that house prices never stop rising and that there's a constant supply of cheap credit."</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/markets-are-working-just-fine-13723.aspx" REL="nofollow">Markets are working just fine – it's government that has failed</A><BR/><BR/>Nothing new:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses" REL="nofollow">Panem et circenses</A><BR/><BR/>"Circenses" is easily provided lately, but "panem" may be a bit harder to come by.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-77256410407311546022008-09-30T13:19:00.000-07:002008-09-30T13:19:00.000-07:00Above article was written in July of 2007. Stats a...Above article was written in July of 2007. Stats are dated, outlook much different.....<BR/><BR/>.... but, interestingly enough, the authors and Radley at that time had opposite views. Today, given what we've been through recently, the authors and Radley once again have the opposite viewpoint.<BR/><BR/>->Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-91242778315511409852008-09-30T13:17:00.000-07:002008-09-30T13:17:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-88475459097440941772008-09-30T13:10:00.000-07:002008-09-30T13:10:00.000-07:00The sub-prime market is also in its infancy – maki...<I>The sub-prime market is also in its infancy – making up just 5% of Canadian mortgage originations last year as opposed to 20% in the US – and competition is much more sparse. This is a fact that Tal of CIBC World Markets expects to see change within the next few years. “I think that the sub-prime market in Canada can continue to grow – and, in fact, might even double itself – without having a major impact on the overall risk profile,” he says. “We might see some increased delinquency in the margin, but one could make the point that, given the extremely low delinquency rates in the mortgage market, maybe the market has been too conservative. When you’re too conservative, by definition, there is a portion of the market that is underserved.” Tal says that, given the vast amount of room available in the sub-prime market, Canadian lenders should brace themselves for competition in the form of major US players. “They’re coming and they’re one of the most important drivers of sub-prime growth in Canada,” he says, adding that the number of US companies that choose to cross the border could either increase as a result of the collapse in the US (to make up for lost profits) or decrease as they cut their losses.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.canadianmortgageprofessional.com/pdf/07_2.2_CMPG1_2.2_20_26.pdf" REL="nofollow">Canadian Mortgage Trends.</A><BR/><BR/>->Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-24554736053573998242008-09-30T12:47:00.000-07:002008-09-30T12:47:00.000-07:00Regarding the trigger being worldwide credit marke...Regarding the trigger being worldwide credit market problems:<BR/><BR/>I see this being fairly balanced, as 5 year bond yields drop and the BoC interest rate is cut (due to economic slowdown), this will lead to lower fixed and variable mortgage rates. However, due to higher risk spreads, the interest rates is currently elevated. I see this as being two counteracting forces. Indeed, 5 year fixed mortgage rates are less than they were at this time last year.<BR/><BR/>As for the issue of tightened credit lending standards, I see this as a positive development. Subprime is typically regarding as anything below a FICO score of 620. At the peak of the US market, subprime and Alt-A accounted for 33% of loan originations. However, non-conforming mortgage originations only reached 5.4% in Canada. The fact that subprime plays such a small role in the Canadian housing market, and that the government is moving to eliminate mortgages for people with a credit score of under 600 should be viewed as a positive development. <BR/><BR/>The previous FICO threshold of 620 announced by the government of Canada, would have ENTIRELY eliminated Canada's subprime mortgage market.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-60908122416823979002008-09-30T12:46:00.000-07:002008-09-30T12:46:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-34834644950761002092008-09-30T12:37:00.000-07:002008-09-30T12:37:00.000-07:00I work in the financial sector, investing for a la...I work in the financial sector, investing for a large US firm in Canadian energy companies and projects. not the best time to be in finance!<BR/><BR/>Needless to say, while international investors have been significantly pulling back on new capital investments for most of the year, I can confirm that now, many of the traditional Canadian institutions that invest here have decided to do no new projects for the time being. These investors include the large banks, insurance companies, and pension funds.<BR/><BR/>It appears the credit crunch has finally arrived in earnest in Canada.<BR/><BR/>What does this mean? Basically, it means that for the next while (no one knows how long), there will be much less capital chasing projects and companies in Canada, including energy ones.<BR/><BR/>Welcome to the world of credit contraction.RJThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16895839672897312060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-74902456515517104962008-09-30T11:17:00.000-07:002008-09-30T11:17:00.000-07:00BearClaw said... pop,If you can subtract 100 you'l...<I> BearClaw said... <BR/>pop,<BR/><BR/>If you can subtract 100 you'll be able to manage.<BR/><BR/>September 30, 2008 10:24 AM</I><BR/><BR/>It has nothing to do with whether any of us can figure it out. <BR/><BR/>It's the fact that they are trying to make the stats on the surface look better than they really are.*POP*https://www.blogger.com/profile/09013756374394356937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-4803492873383645592008-09-30T11:14:00.000-07:002008-09-30T11:14:00.000-07:00"Then what magical ability does the 700 Billion he..."Then what magical ability does the 700 Billion he is trying to panhandle have?... maybe it comes with a get out of jail card?"<BR/><BR/>Whats really brutal is that the guys on CNBC and CNN who said yesterday that armageddon was here are now all saying that the markets are up because everyone knows a new bailout bill is sure to pass soon.<BR/><BR/>No matter what happens, its proof that they are right. The amount of big money behind the push for that bill is staggering.ForWhomTheTollBuildshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320211081645519381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-69761755904198260392008-09-30T10:58:00.000-07:002008-09-30T10:58:00.000-07:00MARK OF THE BEASTBush I.Q. = 6Paulson I.Q. = 6Bern...MARK OF THE BEAST<BR/><BR/>Bush I.Q. = 6<BR/>Paulson I.Q. = 6<BR/>Bernanke I.Q. = 6Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-12108992812299850392008-09-30T10:52:00.000-07:002008-09-30T10:52:00.000-07:00Bernanke threw 630 BIllion on yesterdays fire.Wher...Bernanke threw 630 BIllion on yesterdays fire.<BR/><BR/>Where did he get it? did it heal the bobo?.... doesn't look like it.<BR/><BR/>Then what magical ability does the 700 Billion he is trying to panhandle have?... maybe it comes with a get out of jail card?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-2050684464773916302008-09-30T10:37:00.000-07:002008-09-30T10:37:00.000-07:00Gloria,That video clip is something else.Instead o...Gloria,<BR/>That video clip is something else.<BR/><BR/>Instead of trying to shore up their industry and protect their own job stability realtors like Suzzane are driving the last nail in the coffin.<BR/><BR/>Even during the panic meetings to save the economy last weekend,<BR/>radio stations in Montana, Idaho and Seattle were running the 0 down, get in now before prices go up commercials.<BR/><BR/>The banks have brainwashed the thinking capacity of many to the level of mannequin. Especially the young...<BR/>where they are unable to trust their own judgment and hang on every word of those airhead professionals.<BR/><BR/>Case in point, those damn TD Bank commercials running on HGTV where a SUZZANE clone throws one scheme after another at young couples in order to herd them long TD's yellow brick road to serfdom. Sickening.<BR/><BR/>Hey maybe Leonard Cohen should rewrite his song "Suzzane"<BR/><BR/>Suzzane takes you down<BR/>To a place by the soup line....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-30644109978467197062008-09-30T10:32:00.001-07:002008-09-30T10:32:00.001-07:00The $5K tax credit is a joke. It's one of the thin...The $5K tax credit is a joke. It's one of the things the conservatives did that I do not understand, nor agree with. Th eother one was taxing income trusts. <BR/><BR/>It nets you about $750 "real money" overall at the maximum benefit level.<BR/><BR/>Whoopee.....I am not going to buy a $450K house to earn $750.Carioca Canuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13560054096545858201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-24182106490375410572008-09-30T10:32:00.000-07:002008-09-30T10:32:00.000-07:00-The housing slump is at the center of the meltdow...-<BR/><I>The housing slump is at the center of the meltdown in financial markets as declining demand pushes down property values and causes foreclosures to mount. Banks will probably stiffen lending rules even more in coming months to limit losses, indicating residential real estate will keep contracting and consumer spending will continue to falter.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEyKpTpk90C0&refer=home" REL="nofollow">Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Declined 16.3% in July</A><BR/><BR/>Question: How is the purchase of the bad debt from banks going to stem the foreclosures?<BR/><BR/>Is the solution to too much credit more credit? Most Americans are already overextended, so to whom the banks are going to give the credit? More lax practices?<BR/><BR/>Something has to be done in the US, but I have my doubts that the currently proposed solution is going to help much. Americans do not need more credit, they need more income.<BR/><BR/>Call me Conservative if you must...<BR/><BR/><I>Conservatives strongly oppose the rescue plan proposed last week by U.S. President George W. Bush, arguing that it amounts to government intervention in the free market and would misspend taxpayer money to help big banks.<BR/><BR/>They also say that Congress will live to regret passing the $700 billion bill so hastily and more time needs should be spent on a search for a solution that adheres to conservative ideals.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN3043862720080930" REL="nofollow">Conservatives stand firm on opposition to bailout</A><BR/><BR/>What does all this mean to Canadians?<BR/><BR/><I>Hunker down. Things could get a whole lot uglier for the U.S. and global economies. While many on Wall Street believe Congress will pull a financial bailout out of its hat yet, the U.S. economy is heading for debt detox and it's not going to be pretty for anyone. <BR/><BR/>(...)<BR/><BR/>"In our opinion, the current backdrop of tighter lending conditions augurs for more de leveraging as households realize that a financial obligation ratio of about 19% of disposable income is just too high in a context of labour market softness and asset price deflation," Mr. Marion said in a note. "As households begin their quest to rebuild their savings rate, it will necessarily be at the expense of spending."<BR/><BR/>This is where the worry over inflation could very quickly turn into a worry over the dreaded Japan scenario, that of debt deflation. The one-two punch of slower spending and contracting credit, even for those who have the wherewithal to spend, could suck the life right out of the economy, leading to a downward pressure on asset prices, Mr. Holt argues.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=847928" REL="nofollow">Hunker down: It's going to get uglier</A><BR/><BR/>Japan tried hard.<BR/><BR/>If anyone thinks that we need more debt then let me quote Albert Einstein again:<BR/><BR/><I>The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.</I><BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-38350659674194907402008-09-30T10:24:00.000-07:002008-09-30T10:24:00.000-07:00pop,If you can subtract 100 you'll be able to mana...pop,<BR/><BR/>If you can subtract 100 you'll be able to manage.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-51486427453798706272008-09-30T09:59:00.000-07:002008-09-30T09:59:00.000-07:00Mike Fotiou of Last Place Realty is massaging the ...Mike Fotiou of Last Place Realty is massaging the stats again:<BR/><BR/>Average SP/LP Ratio %<BR/> <BR/>Highest SP/LP Ratio %<BR/><BR/>Lowest SP/LP Ratio %<BR/><BR/>Realtor scum.*POP*https://www.blogger.com/profile/09013756374394356937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-14717025920815564702008-09-30T09:40:00.000-07:002008-09-30T09:40:00.000-07:00There is never a "trigger" for the popping of a bu...<I>There is never a "trigger" for the popping of a bubble that is visible before hand. It's kind of part of the definition of a bubble.</I><BR/><BR/>The definition of an asset bubble is that the asset is selling for more than present discounted value of earnings. It has nothing to do with any "trigger".<BR/><BR/>The only "trigger" you need for the popping of a bubble is for prices to be too high for too long. Because that results in supply outrunning demand. It's that simple.<BR/><BR/>Asset bubbles are pyramid schemes that require ever-increasing numbers of new investors to pay off old ones. They inevitably fail.<BR/><BR/>That's exactly what happened in Alberta. Nobody could reasonably claim that there was an external "trigger" that caused the market to fall in 2007 when oil prices were rising at their fastest pace ever. What happened is that new housing was being built at historically high rates, and migration into Alberta fell to historically low rates, both <B>because</B> of high prices.<BR/><BR/>Those who subscribe to the "external trigger" theory will always find one though, since there is always some adverse economic event somewhere which can be blamed.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-13892665128837687522008-09-30T09:15:00.000-07:002008-09-30T09:15:00.000-07:00Conservatives offer $5,000 tax break for first-tim...<A HREF="http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/09/16/conservatives-offer-5-000-tax-break-for-first-time-home-buyers.aspx" REL="nofollow">Conservatives offer $5,000 tax break for first-time home buyers</A>Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-90245759888315029632008-09-30T08:32:00.000-07:002008-09-30T08:32:00.000-07:00"Where's the Trigger for a Canadian House Price Cr..."Where's the Trigger for a Canadian House Price Crash?"<BR/><BR/>There is never a "trigger" for the popping of a bubble that is visible before hand. It's kind of part of the definition of a bubble.<BR/><BR/>But if I had to take a crack at it, I might guess that a worldwide credit market collapse could have an impact on our economic fortunes.<BR/><BR/>Lately I have been thinking that maybe officials in Canada are seeing the situation in the US as being caused solely by "falling house prices". If this is true, they might decide to go to any length to stop house prices from falling significantly in this country.<BR/><BR/>Those who follow the Canadian Mortgage Trends blog know that recently the govt has backed off some of the suggested tightening of credit rules. People with (terrible) fico scores of 600 will still be able to get financing for example.<BR/><BR/>Maybe we will make a decision to keep credit easy through the CMHC at taxpayer expense?ForWhomTheTollBuildshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320211081645519381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-36564164074347477032008-09-30T08:22:00.000-07:002008-09-30T08:22:00.000-07:00So just to recap:The bankers and politicians throu...So just to recap:<BR/><BR/>The bankers and politicians through no fault of their own found themselves immersed in financial crisis that threatened the markets of the entire world.<BR/><BR/>The bravest among them forged a plan to save the system. But then a few selfish taxpayers scuttled the deal dooming us all to total disaster.<BR/><BR/>Then the next day the stock market rallied back up to about where it was when the bailout vote was held.<BR/><BR/>I wonder if in the past, George Bush ever threatened his people with grave danger if his agenda was not allowed to proceed unquestioned. I have no time to look into it now.ForWhomTheTollBuildshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320211081645519381noreply@blogger.com