tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post2028775384526751925..comments2023-09-10T03:39:48.166-07:00Comments on Alberta Bubble: 10 Reasons why It's a bad time to Buy in AlbertaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger444125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-9110148809350131322008-02-01T08:29:00.000-08:002008-02-01T08:29:00.000-08:00I'm your typical first time home buyer looking for...I'm your typical first time home buyer looking for a townhouse in Calgary. My email is flooded daily with new units coming on the market but I do not want to buy in fear of house prices dropping sharply enough to afford a real house.<BR/><BR/>I am doing my due diligence, any advice would be appreciated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-15214622637698511732008-01-26T11:58:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:58:00.000-08:00jim_sMove your post to the next feeder Gloria put...jim_s<BR/><BR/>Move your post to the next feeder Gloria put up this morning. Your 09:40 post should not be missed by anyone.:) <BR/>It all goes back to the 'Mr. Rogers) days. I called him on his style of writing and mutiple identities last year. <BR/>Just watch, he will lay low for while and pounce, just like a sly fox:) <BR/>See Al Bundy has raised his head recently as well:)sunshinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10860907742700989860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-74345515426080963302008-01-26T11:32:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:32:00.000-08:00Matthew,Have you looked at the sales numbers?Down ...Matthew,<BR/><BR/>Have you looked at the sales numbers?<BR/><BR/>Down 30% from last year.<BR/><BR/>Does it make sense to you that people ARE waiting two months to buy at a HIGHER price?<BR/><BR/>No, that doesn't make sense.<BR/><BR/>It's obvious potential buyers are holding out because they feel there will be further price reductions in the future. <BR/><BR/>PEOPLE AREN'T BUYING NOW BECAUSE THEY ARE WAITING FOR PRICES TO DROP IN THE FUTURE HENCE LOW SALES VOLUMES AS COMPARED TO LAST TWO YEARS. IF THEY HOLD OFF BUYING IN JANUARY, I'M SURE THEY WON'T BUY IN THE SPRING EITHER WHEN "PRICES WILL SKYROCKET TO THE STRATOSPHERE." <BR/><BR/>I thought that you might be able to figure that out, but I guess you couldn't. It's pretty much common sense. <BR/><BR/>Sucked in by us chicken littles? Lol.<BR/><BR/>Since when is waiting to buy a house (YOUR LARGEST PURCHASE IN YOUR LIFE) and saving more money a bad thing?<BR/><BR/>It's obvious that you're a starving realtor that was affected by slow sales this month.<BR/><BR/>Maybe it's time to find a part time job? Superstore is hiring, so is Reitman's and La Senza.d3 factohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15617927374224515173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-29072416206807806562008-01-26T11:30:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:30:00.000-08:00Best time to buy has yet to come. Desperation wil...Best time to buy has yet to come. Desperation will set in soon, then buyers have the upper hand.Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-40886695884563011302008-01-26T11:26:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:26:00.000-08:00facto,Don't make fun of Mike, he's a the world's b...facto,<BR/><BR/>Don't make fun of Mike, he's a the world's best realtor.<BR/><BR/>Me, I just come on here every once in a while to warn people not to get too sucked in by the chicken littles on here.<BR/><BR/>Let's face it, now it a great time to buy from a fundamentals point of view. Or if you prefer, wait two months and pay a lot more.Aspiring Authorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16640904633460109574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-77347358567761467492008-01-26T11:23:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:23:00.000-08:00If inventory continues to go up and prices continu...If inventory continues to go up and prices continue to go up. <BR/><BR/>Then we have to rewrite all the economics textbooks in the world and reteach that course.<BR/><BR/>Anyone with an Ecnomics degree would have to go back to school and regraduate.d3 factohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15617927374224515173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-69587373873592437202008-01-26T11:22:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:22:00.000-08:00Matthew,Why do you care so much where house prices...Matthew,<BR/><BR/>Why do you care so much where house prices go anyways? Remember that you admitted to the blog you bought a house in 1998. So you've been living in your house for 10 years now so why do you care?d3 factohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15617927374224515173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-49200017760038114612008-01-26T11:16:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:16:00.000-08:00Calgary Herald this morning front of business sect...Calgary Herald this morning front of business section, big story about how prices always go up in the spring. ... graph for past 20 yrs... so who should I believe, you guys or the newspaper? Considering that the newspaper is a lot more influential than this blog and the same newspaper will have a front page story a week from now on how Jan prices are higher than Dec, there you go....Aspiring Authorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16640904633460109574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-30167553171618585722008-01-26T11:15:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:15:00.000-08:00Cy said... So it looks like we're going to have fo...<I>Cy said... <BR/>So it looks like we're going to have four green arrows soon on Mike Fotiou's stats. I don't think that was expected or predicted here. Could we be wrong about anything else?<BR/><BR/>January 26, 2008 9:31 AM</I><BR/><BR/>Cy, not an intelligent person at all. Your agenda is transparent.<BR/><BR/>Cy is either:<BR/>1. Bob Truman<BR/>2. Mike Fotiou<BR/>3. Disgruntled realtor<BR/><BR/>How else would this Cy character know what Mike's daily stats will look like even before they are posted?<BR/><BR/>Bob stop hiding and come out and have an intelligent debate.d3 factohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15617927374224515173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-67498090625484720402008-01-26T11:10:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:10:00.000-08:00Yes, I can see that. Good to see others can now s...Yes, I can see that. Good to see others can now see the dudes' idiocy. Changed his profile.... so we'll keep watching the grave go deeper and deeper, along with the career.<BR/><BR/>And I thought the declining housing market was fun to watch....Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-25734523851908891792008-01-26T11:02:00.000-08:002008-01-26T11:02:00.000-08:00Jim_s,I think you can safely add Cy to that list a...Jim_s,<BR/><BR/>I think you can safely add Cy to that list as well. <BR/><BR/>Cy types the same way as the aforementioned multiple usernames.<BR/><BR/>Anyways, Cy, price reductions take time, so you won't see a crash overnight. <BR/><BR/>The fundamentals are all there for a price reduction.<BR/><BR/>You just gotta sit back and wait and let the market do its thing.d3 factohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15617927374224515173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-68404322436457038982008-01-26T10:30:00.000-08:002008-01-26T10:30:00.000-08:00couple points:We shouldn't read too much into mont...couple points:<BR/><BR/>We shouldn't read too much into monthly price swings (up or down)<BR/><BR/>prices don't need to crash for a leveraged "investment" too turn out poorlyBearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-17874262824130929702008-01-26T10:20:00.000-08:002008-01-26T10:20:00.000-08:00bearclaw, I think it is partly seasonal, but if pr...bearclaw, I think it is partly seasonal, but if prices are increasing already with the large inventory, I don't think we should be holding our breath, waiting for a crash.Cyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169792249204981010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-43200627905318067152008-01-26T10:04:00.000-08:002008-01-26T10:04:00.000-08:00cy,That is interesting. It does indicate that rea...cy,<BR/><BR/>That is interesting. It does indicate that real estate is not crashing right now. <BR/><BR/>I don't understand why prices would increase with high inventory and low sales. Unless the sales mix has changed, which is a possibility.<BR/><BR/>Its also possible that while we were cheering a decline in the fall, some of that may have been seasonal which is being taken back now.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-33949509846680887422008-01-26T09:53:00.000-08:002008-01-26T09:53:00.000-08:00New post regarding claims of balanced market(un)Ba...New post regarding claims of balanced market<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/unbalanced-market.html" REL="nofollow">(un)Balanced Market</A>BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-85243241311010349742008-01-26T09:40:00.000-08:002008-01-26T09:40:00.000-08:00-Good morning gents;I have done a little sniffing,...-<BR/><BR/>Good morning gents;<BR/><BR/>I have done a little sniffing, and it would appear our MPD friend suffers from serious MPD. I've gone back to Nov '07 and found mactching profiles for the following names:<BR/><BR/>jb<BR/>otis<BR/>quest for truth<BR/>david<BR/>who do you think you're fooling<BR/>ferret<BR/>marquis de sade<BR/>historical facts & fiction<BR/>lemon jelly<BR/>lament<BR/>anonymous<BR/>chris<BR/>common sense<BR/>skweeky cleen<BR/>good-bye bubble<BR/>to funny<BR/>"to" funny<BR/>we hate everybody<BR/>calamity is near<BR/>relax eh<BR/>Jane<BR/>insider<BR/>squidly impersonator<BR/>even angrier in edm<BR/>Ghost<BR/>oiler<BR/>Critical Thinker<BR/>Feeding Frenzy<BR/><BR/>These are but a few... I'm sure going back further would reveal more.<BR/><BR/>If you think that's disturbing, take a look at some of these exchanges that I've cut and paste from past postings on here. <B>The dude actually converses with himself</B>, posing as 3 different bloggers!<BR/><BR/>***********************<BR/><B><I>"skweeky cleen said...<BR/><BR/>Projection is a psychological defense mechanism whereby one "projects" one's own undesirable thoughts, motivations, desires, and feelings onto someone else.<BR/><BR/>Those who project deny a part of themselves that is desperate to come to the surface. In this case, they cannot face their own feelings and therefore project them onto the other person.<BR/><BR/>Sunshine, your obsession with criticizing realtors is a classic case of projection. You are most likely all the things you accuse them of.<BR/><BR/>I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. Say it once or twice, you've made your point. Dozens of times, it's a psychological issue. Get help. <BR/><BR/>I expect your response and subsequent comments will confirm and verify the above prognosis.<BR/><BR/>----------------<BR/><BR/>November 22, 2007 9:32 PM <BR/>chris said... <BR/>Skweeky<BR/><BR/>Terrific comment about Sunshine and his unhealthy obsession. Seems to take his hatred of realtors to a whole higher level than most. Now we know why.<BR/><BR/>November 22, 2007 9:47 PM <BR/><BR/>-----------------<BR/><BR/>anonymous said... <BR/>Skweeky...<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the assessment of Sunshine. I see that you were too polite to say that in real life, he's probably a crook.<BR/><BR/>November 22, 2007 10:23 PM"</I></B><BR/><BR/>***********************<BR/><BR/><BR/>This is serious mental pshychosis. The dude quotes from a particular website non-stop, but has nothing to do with it, of course. <BR/><BR/>His latest posts reveal a serious concern for his reputation, but the more he posts, the deeper the grave he digs. Narcissistic tendancies are only the tip of the iceberg for this psychotic stat-hound.<BR/><BR/>-Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-78502934320447917332008-01-26T09:31:00.000-08:002008-01-26T09:31:00.000-08:00So it looks like we're going to have four green ar...So it looks like we're going to have four green arrows soon on Mike Fotiou's stats. I don't think that was expected or predicted here. Could we be wrong about anything else?Cyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169792249204981010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-32008711168833515682008-01-26T01:39:00.000-08:002008-01-26T01:39:00.000-08:00Looking at Bob Truman's current 'Old Criteria' Sta...Looking at Bob Truman's current 'Old Criteria' Statistics:<BR/><BR/>1a. Current Inventory is 7698.<BR/><BR/>1b. Except for the <I>recent</I> half-year (July 2007 to date), there is no higher inventory listed in 'Old Criteria' stats, which go back to Nov 2004. <BR/><BR/>2a. Sales for Jan 1-21 are 1098. Let's be optimistic and say sales for Jan 22-29 will be 50% of what we've already got. So we get an estimate of 1647 sales for January whole month.<BR/><BR/>2b. Going back all the way to November 2004, the only lower months are,<BR/> - December 2004 (pre-boom)<BR/> - January 2005 (pre-boom)<BR/> - December 2007 (slump month)<BR/>All other months are higher.<BR/><BR/>3a. 'Avg DOM' (sold homes of course) for Jan 1-21 is 56.<BR/><BR/>3b. This is the highest 'Avg DOM' recorded in the table which goes back to Nov 2004.<BR/><BR/>I think it is pretty hard to make this in to something positive for the real estate market, unless you are hoping for it to crash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-54985391270373744252008-01-25T21:43:00.000-08:002008-01-25T21:43:00.000-08:00-Since many on this blog are fond of yearly/monthl...-<BR/>Since many on this blog are fond of yearly/monthly/weekly statistics here is some RE number crunching for Edmonton based on the ever so popular <A HREF="http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html" REL="nofollow">Bob Truman website</A>.<BR/><BR/><B>SFH</B><BR/>Dec. 2006<BR/> Sales:559<BR/> Listings:487<BR/>Dec. 2007<BR/> Sales:475<BR/> Listings:681<BR/>Percent change<BR/> Sales:<B>-15%</B><BR/> Listings:<B>+40%</B><BR/><BR/>Jan. 2007<BR/> Sales:835<BR/> Listings:1088<BR/>Jan. 2008 (projected)<BR/> Sales:686<BR/> Listings:1829<BR/>Percent change<BR/> Sales:<B>-18%</B><BR/> Listings:<B>+68%</B><BR/><BR/><B>Condo</B><BR/>Dec. 2006<BR/> Sales:376<BR/> Listings:372<BR/>Dec. 2007<BR/> Sales:272<BR/> Listings:466<BR/>Percent change<BR/> Sales:<B>-28%</B><BR/> Listings:<B>+25%</B><BR/><BR/>Jan. 2007<BR/> Sales:522<BR/> Listings:674<BR/>Jan. 2008 (projected)<BR/> Sales:333<BR/> Listings:1129<BR/>Percent change<BR/> Sales:<B>-36%</B><BR/> Listings:<B>+68%</B><BR/><BR/>Bear in mind that the 2006 and first half of 2007 were quite a ride for RE in Edmonton. Nevertheless the relative YOY changes in listings and sales seem to be quite significant assuming that the numbers form the <A HREF="http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html" REL="nofollow">Bob Truman website</A> are fairly correct.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-65532820836819765372008-01-25T20:29:00.000-08:002008-01-25T20:29:00.000-08:0010876341649198419625 is back.10876341649198419625 is back.*POP*https://www.blogger.com/profile/09013756374394356937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-84755575590376759212008-01-25T20:24:00.000-08:002008-01-25T20:24:00.000-08:00Linnaeus...I also enjoy your comments and analyses...Linnaeus...I also enjoy your comments and analyses. There are two or three of you on here with excellent critical thinking ability, but when you said...<BR/><BR/>"However, you have no way of knowing if he was lying deliberately or if it was, as he says, a data entry mistake."<BR/><BR/>Bob Truman and Mike Fotiou work together. They both post the same month-to-date stats. If one of them was trying to hoodwink us with incorrect information, wouldn't they have both done it? When it's as simple as clicking over to another website to reconcile the numbers, you'd have to be pretty unsophisticated to think it was intentional.commonsensehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10876341649198419625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-68124580856357740512008-01-25T20:14:00.000-08:002008-01-25T20:14:00.000-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.commonsensehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10876341649198419625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-76201563324648684532008-01-25T19:57:00.000-08:002008-01-25T19:57:00.000-08:00Linnaues,Your posts are well thought out and intel...Linnaues,<BR/><BR/>Your posts are well thought out and intelligent. But I thought I'd add that you *can* wrap your head around the R/E market. It's certainly quantifiable within the boundaries of economics.<BR/><BR/>As Sunshine has pointed out (and which is now extremely obivous to any normal human being), that the inventory levels (supply) far outweigh demand. To date, there is a significantly larger pool of sellers as compared to the pool of buyers. The higher level of inventory with combined low sales will sway the market into a buyer's market.<BR/><BR/>With that being said, it's only a matter of time till inventory levels reach the point where those people who are overextended have no other option but to reduce their expectations to sell at their perceived list prices. As we can already see in the daily stats, alot of sellers are accepting deals well below their list price. And this is a continuing trend, we see more and more steeper price reductions. Back in Sept 2007, would you ever see a property sell 20% under list price? It would have been unheard of. <BR/><BR/>I believe Radley77 was talking about a local realtor, Andrew Kyle, who examines the absorption rate of the local R/E market. I think he's the only realtor in Calgary who is honest enough to admit that <A HREF="http://www.andrewkyle.com/mlsca/home_page.php?page=monthly_report" REL="nofollow">the current market is a buyer's market.</A><BR/><BR/>I believe the "well" of buyers has dried up and most of the potential buyers were caught up in the frenzy that took place 2 years ago. <BR/><BR/>If the sales volume in Janaury is any indication as compared to other years, then we will definitely see price reductions this year.<BR/><BR/>They won't happen overnight but you will see them happening gradually over time.*POP*https://www.blogger.com/profile/09013756374394356937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-78622399850443357212008-01-25T16:52:00.000-08:002008-01-25T16:52:00.000-08:00$1,200 per couple, $300 per child of that couple. ...$1,200 per couple, $300 per child of that couple. $300 to even the non-tax paying individuals.<BR/><BR/>Sure China is lending the money, with the hopes we will put it right back into the economy. In turn, this takes some heat off China's economy.......and on it goes. Because without us, they are screwed.sunshinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10860907742700989860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-26922923419493649432008-01-25T16:49:00.000-08:002008-01-25T16:49:00.000-08:00linnaeusYour fourth paragraph, first line, should ...linnaeus<BR/><BR/>Your fourth paragraph, first line, should read "there is a much larger pool of sellers" & "much smaller pool of buyers". Would that not be much closer to the truth as things stand today.<BR/><BR/>Whether it's the USA/GB/CAN. Ain't no time to be sitting on the fence (money wise). CAUTION is the word.sunshinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10860907742700989860noreply@blogger.com