tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post1567690601121753385..comments2023-09-10T03:39:48.166-07:00Comments on Alberta Bubble: The Princes of Alberta Island are now running scared....Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-56432143004360863462008-10-24T10:38:00.000-07:002008-10-24T10:38:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Magnum Innominandumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16128906211160672518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-57062612897269713542008-10-24T06:54:00.000-07:002008-10-24T06:54:00.000-07:00With baited anticipation watching the opening bell...With baited anticipation watching the opening bell from London, it's down just -500 now. <BR/><BR/>But I expect the market will do much worse if it doesn't stop trading at -1100 and keeps doing -300 drops each day for the next two months. People will bleed away their retirement, their savings and their investments so slowly that when they realise it, it will be gone vs. the market crashing completely today and rebuilding at -1500.<BR/><BR/>Time to dump the stocks.<BR/><BR/>MikeSnakes and Laddershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07876011566991048971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-72940596036562823822008-10-24T06:05:00.000-07:002008-10-24T06:05:00.000-07:00brent..550 is all thats allowed before openingbrent..550 is all thats allowed before openingsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-83769324676387752092008-10-24T06:03:00.000-07:002008-10-24T06:03:00.000-07:00Global Markets are in for a free fall.Dow Futures ...Global Markets are in for a free fall.<BR/>Dow Futures down 550Brenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11692519299223098252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-67562069201047384892008-10-24T05:54:00.000-07:002008-10-24T05:54:00.000-07:00The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the...<I>The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king.</I><BR/><A HREF="http://www.deanlebaron.com/book/ultimate/chapters/mania.html" REL="nofollow">Manias, Panics and Crashes </A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-49709330129978905882008-10-24T05:17:00.000-07:002008-10-24T05:17:00.000-07:00todays the day the bear has had enough of the bull...todays the day <BR/><A HREF="http://www.scottgoto.com/Site/HOME_files/BullVsBear-filtered.jpg" REL="nofollow">the bear has had enough of the bull sh@t and kills it dead</A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-27575504225902881332008-10-24T05:08:00.000-07:002008-10-24T05:08:00.000-07:00i am up early for the massacrethe markets may not ...i am up early for the massacre<BR/>the markets may not open today<BR/><BR/>as people realize whats happening<BR/>panic will take hold<BR/><BR/>good luck radley..your all in<BR/>and i am all outsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-86597150324430549222008-10-23T23:52:00.000-07:002008-10-23T23:52:00.000-07:00Actually Radley, if you listened to Roubini, the m...Actually Radley, if you listened to Roubini, the moral of the story is your f*cked.<BR/><BR/>-500k Condo in JunkLand<BR/><BR/>-Oil and Gas spending freeze in Alberta next year which will get worse. <BR/><BR/>You're on your tippy toes.<BR/><BR/>Hindsight is 20/20. I know that inside, if you knew the world was going to be on systemic global financial meltdown, the old Radley would not have purchased Alberta R/E.<BR/><BR/>Now you have a 500k noose around your head.<BR/><BR/>Imagine all the more discretionary income you would have if you just rented a bit longer.<BR/><BR/>You harp on a great time to purchase equities. You would have had more cash to do so in the next coming year.<BR/><BR/>Instead you'll probably end up being laid off while being completely upsidedown on your mortgage.7¿radleyparadox7?https://www.blogger.com/profile/12702617621317632754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-1760016010213694342008-10-23T22:51:00.000-07:002008-10-23T22:51:00.000-07:00-The cost of borrowing in US dollars for three mon...-<BR/><I>The cost of borrowing in US dollars for three months in London fell by the smallest margin in nine days as concern about lending intensified even as central banks poured cash into money markets.<BR/><BR/>The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for such loans dropped less than a basis point to 3.535% on Thursday, from 3.541% the day before, the British Bankers' Association said. The overnight rate rose for the first time in 10 days, climbing 9 basis points to 1.21%. Asian rates increased for the first time since Oct. 16 and the commercial-paper market shrank for a sixth-straight week.<BR/><BR/>``Market activity isn't recovering strongly, or even significantly, and it won't as long as banks can get all they want from the central banks,'' said Patrick Jacq, a fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas SA in Paris. ``While it's a good sign that rates have been coming down, they are doing so because central banks are playing the role of the interbank market and allotting as much liquidity as is demanded.''<BR/><BR/>(...)<BR/><BR/>``Liquidity seems to have disappeared out of the interbank market'' today, said David Buik, a market analyst in London at BGC Partners Inc. ``Lending has dried up. Ugly rumors are permeating around the market that other, smaller countries may be experiencing similar problems to Iceland.''</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://business.smh.com.au/business/money-markets-halt-their-thaw-20081024-57kj.html" REL="nofollow">Money markets halt their thaw</A><BR/><BR/>It seems that we will see more countries than just Iceland going bankrupt.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile in China...<BR/><BR/><I>While housing bubbles around the world have burst, China's market has been seen as different because its surge in home building has been driven less by financial leverage than by real demand from a rapidly urbanizing population. Anywhere from 15 million to 20 million people move to Chinese cities each year.<BR/><BR/>But sales of new housing in China have plummeted in recent months as buyers have been spooked by a deteriorating economy and weakening prices.<BR/><BR/>With economic growth also slowing more than expected, officials have moved from trying to rein in prices to encouraging buyers. This week they announced tax breaks, smaller down-payment requirements and lower loan rates for first-time buyers.<BR/><BR/>If housing continues to tank, China may not be able to keep growth above the 8% rate the government has long regarded as the minimum necessary for prosperity. More than 80 million people are employed directly in the construction industry, so a prolonged downturn also threatens to lead to more unemployment and social unrest.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122478601140563277.html" REL="nofollow">China Aids Home Buyers to Curb Impact of Slump</A><BR/><BR/>Seems even China's housing has been frothy. Surprise, surprise, eh?<BR/>And what their plan is? Ah, yes, the tax breaks and relaxation of lending standards. How about 0% down and 40 year amortizations? Did wonders in other countries... for a while.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-65012464410705550102008-10-23T22:49:00.000-07:002008-10-23T22:49:00.000-07:00If Warren Buffet is not a good counsel regarding i...If Warren Buffet is not a good counsel regarding investment strategies here is what the biggest bear on the block (Nouriel Roubini) has to say about where he puts his money (see below). <BR/><BR/>Although, I think the point with Warren Buffet is that it was the corporation Berkshire Hathaway that purchased GE and Goldman preferred shares as part of it's investment strategy. It was not an investment from his personal bank account. In the past he has only held government bonds and Berkshire Hathaway stock.<BR/><BR/>Here is what Nouriel had recently said about his investing strategy:<BR/><BR/>CNBC: "Nouriel, I wanna know what the biggest best brightest bear in the history of the economy, meaning you, has done with his money over the past several years and what are you doing with it now."<BR/>Roubini: "I am not an active investor, I put everything possibly into index or equities globally keeping until I retire. If I was an active investor today I'd keep things in cash, or in or safe treasuries, I think there is significant downside risk to equities, commodities and housing related stuff. Even credit spreads are widening alot and they are going to widen even further. Things are going to get really ugly."<BR/><BR/>The moral of the story is, for equity investing would you rather trust a person who has become the richest man in the world due to his investing strategy or an economist who invests passively in the stock market?<BR/><BR/>I think it is clear that some of the best equity investment opportunities occur 6 - 9 months before the recession ends. If we assume we are currently in a recession, then sometimes in the relatively near future (0 - 12 ish months) is going to be some of the better times to invest in equities.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-51841870769232976982008-10-23T21:16:00.000-07:002008-10-23T21:16:00.000-07:00scared yet..scared yet..squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-59672684163281344292008-10-23T21:09:00.000-07:002008-10-23T21:09:00.000-07:00house prices are now irrelevantnow its about your ...house prices are now irrelevant<BR/>now its about your retirement<BR/>read my above link..it will happen<BR/>a total and complete collapse<BR/><BR/>if you do not believe me..look at your RRSP account<BR/><BR/>GET OUT NOW !!!!<BR/><BR/>there is no recovery..squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-13918849559893699562008-10-23T20:46:00.000-07:002008-10-23T20:46:00.000-07:00if you have done anything today..please read this....<A HREF="http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.weblog" REL="nofollow">if you have done anything today..please read this..your financial future is in extreme peril</A><BR><BR/>folks..there could be a complete collapse..a complete meltdown<BR/>please please read thissquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-62098446027353208542008-10-23T17:45:00.000-07:002008-10-23T17:45:00.000-07:00a blogger on the edm blog said.."Sheldon,Last year...a blogger on the edm blog said..<BR/><BR/><I>"Sheldon,Last year when some people were saying that prices will fall ...you picked on them ...joked and presented your own reasons saying that it is just a minor correction. Till now the 'then' SFH of $425K is at $325K. <BR/>In your view is it still a minor correction?? <BR/>I do not think that a person of your knowledge, caliber and intellect can be that wrong. Did do you do it intentionally?"</I>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-32899951810075523292008-10-23T17:24:00.000-07:002008-10-23T17:24:00.000-07:00I saw the Edmonton mayor on the news tonight. He w...I saw the Edmonton mayor on the news tonight. He was questioning the logic behind the infrastructure spending that is proposed for the next few years. He said it will amount to double digit property tax increase every year for at least the next 3 years to pay for the construction. <BR/><BR/> I'm sure the already tapped out Edmonton consumer won't mind seeing their property taxes go up 40% in 3 years.Marvinmeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07214540255903096670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-56170867026198663962008-10-23T16:50:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:50:00.000-07:00"Blogger ☺Neil☺ ie ♪♫Mr. Happy Again ♪♫ said... ..."Blogger ☺Neil☺ ie ♪♫Mr. Happy Again ♪♫ said...<BR/><BR/> I'm Back....<BR/><BR/> Here is the first sane story I've read in long time. Finally someone with some vision. Way to go Gary."<BR/><BR/>____________________________________<BR/><BR/>"So just where is E-town's economy going? Toward a period of slower growth, admits Tsounis, at an estimated 2.5 per cent this year, 2.8 per cent next year, and an average of 3.3 per cent between 2009 and 2011."<BR/><BR/>This means growth will be cut in roughly half from the "Red Hot" days. This would place Alberta in the "average growth" range. That is hardly "Boom" type growth. Alberta is no longer projected to have the hottest economy, we are going to fall behind Saskatchewan and Manitoba. We do however have one of the most expensive costs of living. Do you think people will still flock here?? Weren't they coming here in search of those outrageously high paying Oil jobs that they thought were everywhere in this province? <BR/><BR/> I really don't think "mediocre" with a very high cost of living will be much of a draw for the "masses" anymore.<BR/><BR/> Oh, but I'm sure people will still be willing to spend a huge amount of money on overpriced Alberta Real Estate, even if interest rates go up substantially in the coming years.....that is if the bank will lend it to them.Marvinmeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07214540255903096670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-76959256490345520742008-10-23T16:47:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:47:00.000-07:00sorry for the delete..“It’s the beginning of the d...sorry for the delete..<BR/><BR/><I>“It’s the beginning of the decline of the US financial empire. The Great Depression ended in a massive war. I hope that’s not going to happen but it’s pretty ugly now,” said Professor Roubini, an academic and former US Treasury adviser. He expects a global recession to last for at least two years and said the current crisis could lead to a "massive, ugly war."<BR/><BR/>“We’re now paying the price for the biggest asset and credit bubble in history," Professor Roubini said at a hedge fund conference in London. "The bail-outs have not worked because the markets are no longer rallying, and the policymakers have run out of options.”<BR/><BR/>Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.</I><BR/> <A HREF="http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown </A><BR><BR/>all of this due to greed corruption and housessquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-70207023042163702752008-10-23T16:43:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:43:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-35129690271307387322008-10-23T16:36:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:36:00.000-07:00I was defining the "crash" as the period...I was defining the "crash" as the period between September 19, 2008 to October 10, 2008 wherein the stock market (S&P 500 by proxy) fell 28% in a relatively short period of time.<BR/><BR/>On September 18, 2008 the TED spread was already at 3.13%, the highest level since the crisis began. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 22, 2008. Days later the TED spread had mushroomed to 4.64%.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-5211736838436024622008-10-23T16:30:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:30:00.000-07:00"Blogger strapped for cash said... Wonder what..."Blogger strapped for cash said...<BR/><BR/> Wonder what's going to happen with all that retail/commercial space?<BR/><BR/> Retail bankruptcies spike expected in early 2009, group says<BR/><BR/> "The current inventory of retail space is about 25 million square feet, and today there are 41 retail projects in various stages of planning and development, said Kosowan, adding that nine million square feet is planned to come on stream in the next two years, increasing the current inventory by 35 per cent."<BR/><BR/>__________________________________<BR/><BR/><BR/>This is what I have been saying for awhile now. We are absolutely over building in this Province. Drive around, you see it everywhere. I have seen "for lease" signs on new commercial buildings and new strip mall units for over a year now. They list the number of units left and the numbers have not changed. And yet they are still breaking ground for even more buildings all over this city. It's insanity!! Allot of the buildings are being financed by "regular joe" investors. You can't turn on the radio without hearing an ad for a "wonderful investment opportunity" offered by one of the MANY Realty investment companies that popped up out of nowhere in this province. So, the people building these buildings are passing on all of the risk to the poor sucker Albertans.....who are as usual, looking to get rich in Real Estate. They are smart, build until the bottom falls out than head for the hills with someone else's money.Marvinmeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07214540255903096670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-87742418032038115992008-10-23T16:25:00.000-07:002008-10-23T16:25:00.000-07:00I'm Back....Here is the first sane story I've read...I'm Back....<BR/><BR/>Here is the first sane <A HREF="http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=ad0de674-6f44-4b6e-862a-5cf46f0541d5" REL="nofollow">story</A> I've read in long time. Finally someone with some vision. Way to go Gary.BGMRAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13034877059119778629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-19431391938608874002008-10-23T15:43:00.001-07:002008-10-23T15:43:00.001-07:00-Interesting times...We must recognize, therefore,...-<BR/>Interesting times...<BR/><BR/><I>We must recognize, therefore, that the situation existing today is not typical of all bear markets. Broadly speaking, it is new and unprecedented. It is a strange, ironical aftermath of the "new era" madness of 1921929. It reflects the extraordinary results of profound but little understood changes in the financial attitude of the people, and the financial fabric of the country.<BR/><BR/>Two plausible and seemingly innocent ideas, the first that good stocks are good investments; the second, that values depend on earning power--were distorted and exploited into a frenzied financial gospel which ended by converting all our investors into speculators, by making our corporations rich and their stockholders poor, by reversing the relative importance of commercial loans and Wall Street loans, by producing topsy-turvy accounting policies and wholly irrational standards of value--and in no small measure was responsible for the paradoxical depression in which we find ourselves submerged.<BR/><BR/>Behind the simple fact that a great many stocks are selling for much less than their working capital lies a complex of causes, results and implications. The remainder of this article will deal with the causes of the present unique situation, while other ramified aspects will be developed in succeeding articles.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.forbes.com/intelligentinvesting/2008/10/23/inflated-treasuries-stockholders-cz_bg_1023forbesarchive.html" REL="nofollow">Inflated Treasuries And Deflated Stockholders</A><BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-23564373083657373122008-10-23T15:43:00.000-07:002008-10-23T15:43:00.000-07:00Wonder what's going to happen with all that retail...Wonder what's going to happen with all that retail/commercial space? <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/story.html?id=6a8f7336-ff26-42e1-b8f5-62bd86a5c7fb" REL="nofollow"> Retail bankruptcies spike expected in early 2009, group says </A><BR/><BR/><I>"The current inventory of retail space is about 25 million square feet, and today there are 41 retail projects in various stages of planning and development, said Kosowan, adding that nine million square feet is planned to come on stream in the next two years, increasing the current inventory by 35 per cent."</I>Intriguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00831299012782322775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-79351661408981087072008-10-23T15:36:00.000-07:002008-10-23T15:36:00.000-07:00picture of a bull v bear<A HREF="http://www.scottgoto.com/Site/HOME_files/BullVsBear-filtered.jpg" REL="nofollow">picture of a bull v bear</A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-53875069076582236102008-10-23T15:33:00.000-07:002008-10-23T15:33:00.000-07:00-Squeezed banks and investment firms are borrowing...-<BR/><I>Squeezed banks and investment firms are borrowing from the Fed because they can't get money elsewhere. Investors have cut them off, moving their money into safer Treasury securities. Financial institutions are hoarding whatever cash they have, rather than lend it to each other or customers. The lockup in lending has contributed to a sharp slowing in the overall economy.<BR/><BR/>The report also showed the Fed has loaned $90.3 billion to insurance giant American International Group. In mid-September, the Fed said it would provide the troubled company a two-year, $85 billion loan. And, recently the central bank said it would loan the company an additional $37.8 billion.<BR/><BR/>The report comes as Washington policymakers battle the worst financial crisis since the stock market crash of 1929.<BR/><BR/>So far this year, 15 banks have failed, compared with three last year.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D940E2900.htm" REL="nofollow">Banks borrow record amount from Fed</A><BR/><BR/>No lending yet, except for the Fed of course.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.com