tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post1221708141471361796..comments2023-09-10T03:39:48.166-07:00Comments on Alberta Bubble: Weekend Open ThreadUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-18503016377287453812008-10-27T02:30:00.000-07:002008-10-27T02:30:00.000-07:00from HP"I truly believe that the NAR should be shu...from HP<BR/><BR/><I>"I truly believe that the NAR should be shut down by an act of Congress for racketeering, restraint of trade, collusion, corrupting of public officials, and fraud.<BR/><BR/>I'm dead serious about this.<BR/><BR/>The National Association of realtors on Commission is perhaps the most destructive and evil group operating today in America. They must be targeted, they must be investigated, and they must be stopped.<BR/><BR/>It's time to stop these evil-doers and their members, before they do even more damage to America and the free world.</I><BR/><A HREF="http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2008/10/national-association-of-realtors-on.html#links" REL="nofollow">this is a HP link</A><BR><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2008/10/heres-picture-of-granite-countertop-you.html#links" REL="nofollow">We destroyed the world economy for these?</A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-55572842002131921712008-10-27T00:30:00.000-07:002008-10-27T00:30:00.000-07:00Oil falls to $63 as investors eye falling demandOi...<A HREF="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081027/oil_prices.html" REL="nofollow">Oil falls to $63 as investors eye falling demand</A><BR/><BR/><I>Oil falls to $63 in Asia as investors eye falling demand, brush off OPEC output cut <BR/><BR/><BR/>SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell to 17-month lows at $63 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors weighed Friday's OPEC output cut against growing evidence of a severe global economic slowdown that would undermine crude demand.</I><BR/><BR/>Brushing off the OPEC cut in production like Jay Z dusting off his shoulders. <BR/><BR/>I'm glad I live on Alberta Island!☺neil☺ ie ♪♫ ♥ mr.fakehappyagain ♪♫https://www.blogger.com/profile/00922286845290669432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-73671377806961224102008-10-27T00:12:00.000-07:002008-10-27T00:12:00.000-07:00Asia stocks dive to 4-year lows; yen slips on G7HO...<A HREF="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081027/ts_nm/us_markets_global" REL="nofollow">Asia stocks dive to 4-year lows; yen slips on G7</A><BR/><BR/><I>HONG KONG (Reuters) – Asian shares extended losses on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei briefly hitting its lowest since 1982, as central bank policy moves including a record rate cut in South Korea were not enough to allay fears of a global recession.<BR/><BR/>Trading was chaotic amid continued doubts over whether governments can stem a crisis that is menacing financial markets, worldwide economic growth and company earnings.</I><BR/><BR/>Fun.<BR/><BR/>Hey Neil, what are you waiting for? Let's go play some golf lol.☺neil☺ ie ♪♫ ♥ mr.fakehappyagain ♪♫https://www.blogger.com/profile/00922286845290669432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-64332567581263565482008-10-26T23:45:00.000-07:002008-10-26T23:45:00.000-07:00-Asia is certainly in shambles today.Japanese rebo...-<BR/>Asia is certainly in shambles today.<BR/><BR/><I>Japanese rebounded from an early low not seen in at least 23 years only to fall again in the afternoon session as the sell-off sent the Nikkei tumbling to a 5.9% loss. <BR/>The Hang Seng Index dropped below the 12,000-point level in Hong Kong for the first time since July 2004, falling beneath another key psychological level after sliding under 13,000 on Friday and 14,000 on Thursday. <BR/>Stocks plunged in Philippines, sending the main index down by more than 12%, as trading resumed after a 10% tumble in the benchmark earlier in the day triggered a 15-minute halt. Taiwanese stocks slumped a day after the government ended a rule limiting stocks' downside to 3.5% from 7% previously. <BR/>"Investors are selling because of the uncertainty," said Patrick Shum, strategist at Karl Thomson Securities in Hong Kong. "Most stocks are attractive in terms of valuations, but the problem is that the financial crisis isn't a short-term problem, so there is no quick solution to it. It may take one or two years, or even more."</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hang-seng-below-12000-regional/story.aspx?guid=9A530A21-01F9-4DE0-A439-504B07C91216&dist=SecMostRead" REL="nofollow">Hang Seng below 12,000; regional sell-off continues</A><BR/><BR/>Gambling opportunities abound for day traders. I hope that everyone else is waiting for the hurricane to pass before going on the bargain hunt. Don't get fooled by the balmy eye.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-15899676397200818772008-10-26T23:23:00.000-07:002008-10-26T23:23:00.000-07:00-Meanwhile another mole rears its ugly head as the...-<BR/>Meanwhile another mole rears its ugly head as the whack-a-mole game continues. I bet whacking this one is worth extra points as well.<BR/><BR/><I>The Group of Seven warned the surging yen posed a threat to financial and economic stability on Monday in the latest coordinated effort by the world's richest nations to contain worst financial crisis in 80 years.<BR/><BR/>The yen was the only currency mentioned in a brief G7 statement issued as it rallied to 13-year high against the dollar, threatening Japanese exports as world's second-largest economy tumbles toward recession.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/10/27/2008-10-27T050715Z_01_SP348888_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-TOPWRAP-2.html" REL="nofollow">TOPWRAP 2-G7 fires warning shot on yen surge</A><BR/><BR/>Why yen is so important?<BR/><BR/><I><B>What Is The Carry Trade?</B> <BR/>At its simplest the carry trade involves borrowing money in an overseas currency with a lower interest rate than the currency of the host or originating investment and investing in higher yielding assets such as US or emerging market debt thus benefiting from the differential whilst substituting currency risk. Much has been made of investor preference for borrowing in low yielding yen, however, it is not the only currency to have become subjected to such activity.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/the-carry-trade-a-tsunami-in-the-making.aspx" REL="nofollow">The carry trade: a tsunami in the making</A><BR/><BR/><I>The end of of the yen carry trade could be devastating for capital markets throughout the world. Experts estimate that there are several hundred billion dollars of positions in the carry trade to be unwound. David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, says that it has pervaded “every single instrument imaginable”, so that when it comes to an end later this year it’s going to be “ugly”.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/what-is-the-carry-trade.aspx" REL="nofollow">What is the carry trade?</A><BR/><BR/>The above articles are from last year.<BR/><BR/>And so the credit crisis tremors may have started the yen carry trade tsunami.<BR/>Onto a higher ground anyone? I suppose owning a "hill" may be quite profitable in these times.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-60070169878305851422008-10-26T22:55:00.000-07:002008-10-26T22:55:00.000-07:00-Marvinmee said... Housing lots in Edmonton were g...-<BR/><I>Marvinmee said... <BR/><BR/>Housing lots in Edmonton were going for between 180 - 300K. this is so laughable. 6 years ago a housing lot would go for around 50K, what you paid for a house back than you now are only getting a lot for the same price. That is pure price gouging at it's worst. The houses aren't much more expensive to build in my opinion, in reality, the lots are what have gone ridiculously high.</I><BR/><BR/>This is absolutely right. Anyone that owns a house and has it insured knows that the current replacement cost is not much higher that it was a few years ago. And we are certainly not running out of land. Inelasticity of land supply due to the city biurocracy is partly to blame but the rest is speculation. See the oil bubble.<BR/><BR/>Turning to the wider economic conditions...<BR/><BR/><I>Many economists believe Asia is already teetering on the brink of a downturn. At investment bank UBS, forecasters are now predicting gross domestic product growth of around 6% in Asia excluding Japan next year. Other economists, including forecasters at Standard Chartered Bank, are pegging China's growth below 8% in 2009, which also could put it in notable pullback territory.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122505465551669955.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" REL="nofollow">Sharp Slowdown in Asia Nears</A><BR/><BR/>The "decoupling" seems to be "so yesterday".<BR/>The global shocks are causing headaches for the Chinese Dragon.<BR/><BR/><I>"What is the policy response? It's very simple. Just one word: domestic demand, domestic demand, domestic demand. We are going to spend a lot of money on rural education and rural medicare and so forth. And we are going to strengthen social security, enhance labour standards and strengthen the enforcement of environmental protection laws."<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, housing turnover in most major cities is down more than 60 per cent this month from a year ago. Goldman Sachs says the residential real estate market has to work through 22 months of supply. The heavy industries that supply the construction sector are on death row.<BR/><BR/>The scariest statistic to come out of the world economy last week was that China's rate of steel production in September had fallen by one-fifth since June. The October figures will be much worse.<BR/><BR/>Heavy industry in the north and light manufacturing in the south are shutting their doors and millions of workers have probably been laid off. Industry leaders say there is not a single steel or aluminium mill that is making money in China now.<BR/><BR/>China's current leadership team has never faced a serious economic downturn and no Chinese policymaker has ever had to handle a deflating asset bubble. Perhaps that's why they are still debating whether collapsing house prices at a time of extreme economic fragility might be a good thing.<BR/><BR/>But building unwanted apartments and roads to nowhere is easy, while rebalancing the economy is not. China and the world are running out of time.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://business.smh.com.au/business/chinas-leaders-are-struggling-to-deal-with-the-shocks-20081026-5916.html" REL="nofollow">China's leaders are struggling to deal with the shocks</A><BR/><BR/>It appears that even China did not escape the housing froth. Easy asset based credit is quite dangerous it seems. Asset valuations can change rapidly up but also down and not everyone has realized that. The contraction of credit and deleveraging is continuing and it wrecks havoc in stocks.<BR/><BR/><I>Another reason the market is likely headed for more turbulence is the enormous amount of deleveraging going on. When investors like hedge funds deleverage, it means they are getting out of debt and risky assets and building up their cash levels.<BR/><BR/>Some of the recent deleveraging is due to risk aversion, but some of it isn't even within the funds' control -- investors are asking for their money back, so the funds have to cash out other assets. Often, these assets are typical safe-haven investments like big-name industrial stocks and commodities, because they're the only things that can be sold in the current environment.<BR/><BR/>"Sectors that traditionally and intuitively should be defensive are really getting punished," Knepp said.<BR/><BR/>(...)<BR/><BR/>So, with the economy and the markets in uncharted territory, waiting for the dire headlines to end and gauging investors' sentiment is in some ways more helpful than looking at historical charts and technical factors like price-to-earnings ratios.<BR/><BR/>According to JPMorgan's Lee, "valuations, in our view, will not define the bottom, but rather an abatement of risk aversion."</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D942FB780.htm" REL="nofollow">More weak data, hedge-fund selling seen this week</A><BR/><BR/>It will take time to reach bottom in stocks and it will take even more time for recovery.<BR/><BR/><I>What do investors need to do in the current situation? The recommendations equity strategists have been giving tend to be more confusing than comforting if you don't know their underlying market and economic assumptions. To provide some clarity, BusinessWeek ran three basic "war game" scenarios by a select group of investment professionals to get their views on how to navigate through these treacherous market waters.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2008/pi20081026_163762.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story" REL="nofollow">Stocks: Playing the Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios</A><BR/><BR/>Does all that mean anything to us on the "Alberta Energy Superpower Island"?<BR/><BR/>Well... let's answer this question by asking two more:<BR/><BR/>Is Alberta an "Energy Superpower"?<BR/><BR/>and<BR/><BR/>Is Alberta an "isolated island"?<BR/><BR/>Thus we have an obvious answer to the first question.<BR/><BR/>Does all that mean anything to the R/E market in Alberta?<BR/><BR/>Well...<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-48580213693706548982008-10-26T21:34:00.000-07:002008-10-26T21:34:00.000-07:00"Blogger kalua said... I have a question....Th..."Blogger kalua said...<BR/><BR/> I have a question....There is all this talk about house prices falling etc..., but I don't really see this happening...Sure they have fallen somewhat, but homes are still way over priced, especially here in Alberta. Now my question is this. When will prices fall to where homes are reasonably priced if ever and how much would prices have to drop to be reasonable? I am so confused with all this. I am not sure if sellers are delusional and just won't come down in price because they feel they can get there asking price, or are people still buying at these ridiculous prices. I have had realtors and mortgage brokers tell me that Albertas economy is still hot and therefore prices wont come down much...Are they delusional too? Frick I am confused!!"<BR/><BR/><BR/>__________________________________<BR/><BR/>Kalua, ask yourself this question. When did house prices in Alberta rise??? They rose at the same time that house prices rose in, Toronto, all over BC, in the US, in the UK, in Spain, In Australia, In many parts of Europe, Asia and The Middle East. Do you think it was just one huge coincidence that house prices skyrocketed at the same time all over the world or do you think that maybe it was a credit fueled worldwide housing Bubble??? People in Alberta seem to miss this point. They seem to think that Alberta is this little island, that we "are different here". They seem to think that Oil was the reason for Alberta house prices to skyrocket. Well than how come they skyrocketed at the same time in Toronto??? How come they skyrocketed at the same time all over BC??? Last I checked, none of these places had Oil?? What about Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, Europe, etc. etc.??? <BR/><BR/> Oil is the excuse that Realtors, speculators etc. give everyone in Alberta but the reality is, our Boom just happened to coincide with the worlds largest housing Bubble. This added fuel to what would have been a healthy housing market due to the Boom and turned it into an "Irrational Exuberance" housing market.<BR/><BR/> One day, people are going to wake up and be shocked at what they were thinking. The people that paid 500k for a mediocre 2000sq ft home that only 4 years earlier was less than half that much will suddenly realize what foolish purchase they made. This is after all Alberta, a nice province but hardly ranked as one of the worlds desirable places to live. <BR/><BR/>To answer your question, YES, they are delusional. I was looking at some new house listings on the web the other day. Housing lots in Edmonton were going for between 180 - 300K. this is so laughable. 6 years ago a housing lot would go for around 50K, what you paid for a house back than you now are only getting a lot for the same price. That is pure price gouging at it's worst. The houses aren't much more expensive to build in my opinion, in reality, the lots are what have gone ridiculously high. This can change dramatically and lowering of lot prices would bring housing prices down significantly in my opinion.Marvinmeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07214540255903096670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-21785384570887917262008-10-26T21:05:00.000-07:002008-10-26T21:05:00.000-07:00Well check out the oil rich nations having credit ...Well check out the <A HREF="http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081026.wgulf1026/GIStory/" REL="nofollow">oil rich nations</A> having credit issues!!!<BR/><BR/>Certainly not in AB though, eh?<BR/><BR/>->Jim_shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00994819826572974422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-14064334835869577462008-10-26T19:04:00.000-07:002008-10-26T19:04:00.000-07:00heres one for sheldon..Why You Can’t Trust Real Es...heres one for sheldon..<BR/><A HREF="http://www.four-pillars.ca/2008/02/18/why-you-cant-trust-real-estate-agents-when-buying-a-house/" REL="nofollow">Why You Can’t Trust Real Estate Agents When Buying A House</A><BR><BR/><A HREF="http://www.four-pillars.ca/2008/02/19/why-you-cant-trust-real-estate-agents-when-selling-a-house/" REL="nofollow">Why You Can’t Trust Real Estate Agents When Selling A House</A><BR><BR/><A HREF="http://www.four-pillars.ca/2008/03/24/do-not-trust-your-real-estate-agent/" REL="nofollow">Even More Reasons Not To Trust Your Real Estate Agent</A><BR><BR/>realtors are common con-men<BR/>plain and cheap con-mensquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-58354625495308705222008-10-26T18:56:00.001-07:002008-10-26T18:56:00.001-07:00The Bubble that Broke the World<A HREF="http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?s=qpQrMC&d=ww2010.i.garrett071009" REL="nofollow">The Bubble that Broke the World </A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-57609251569367718002008-10-26T18:56:00.000-07:002008-10-26T18:56:00.000-07:00hells fury bearing down..<A HREF="http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.weblog" REL="nofollow">hells fury bearing down..</A><BR>squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-5236526990864695562008-10-26T13:03:00.000-07:002008-10-26T13:03:00.000-07:00warren(authentic),You want funny, if also a little...warren(authentic),<BR/><BR/>You want funny, if also a little sad, read Sara and Sheldon's blog posts for Oct. 17 and 24th. <BR/><BR/>You will note them saying that sales were 900 Edmonton units sold in the month as of Oct 17. and 990 on Oct. 24. This despite the fact they show 177sales this past week and last time I checked 900 and 177added up to 1077. This was just one glaring error.<BR/><BR/>They said both weeks that their number (900 or 990) of units sold extrapolated to 1300 total sales for the month in Edmonton. The math says something quite different. If at 17 days there were 900 sold then sales were on pace for 1641 for the month. If 990units had sold at day 24 then 1279 units would sell in the month. Their math really makes no sense. <BR/><BR/>Mind you, when you add up their entire series of sales for the last four weeks and allow for the fact that four of the days in ther first week fall in September the total month to date is 734 sales and the trend is towards (at most) 948 which is below the 990 they claim has already sold. I assume they are comparing apples (official EREB numbers) and oranges (some other source they choose not to disclose) but maybe they can't add. <BR/><BR/>Presumably the purpose of their blog is to advertise their real estate business and I ask you, would you want to buy a house from a real estate agent who can't add, or makes numbers up?notsquiddlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881985798762269045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-24303954814523287442008-10-26T11:29:00.000-07:002008-10-26T11:29:00.000-07:00Good for a chuckle:On October 21st, Mr. Truman wro...Good for a chuckle:<BR/><BR/>On October 21st, Mr. Truman wrote:<BR/><BR/>"Single family home sales, after going into a tailspin in the middle of the month, have now reversed direction. We reached a low in pending sales on Oct 16 of 190 pendings. Those have shot back up to 213 as I write this."<BR/><BR/>As of Mike's stats today, there are 177 pending SFH sales.<BR/><BR/>Free piece of advice: See, when you point out (with great fanfare and attention because "your readers want to know") blips and outliers in a very, very, very clear trend INSTEAD of talking about the trend itself - you come off looking very dumb. Especially when you say that a temporary 10% increase is "shot back". Sort of like the whole "June sees reversal in trends" headline.<BR/><BR/>What I can see from the actual "trends" is that both SFH and Condo sales will be very close to (if they don't actually come below) the low of December 2007 which were the lowest sales numbers since Bob started posting stats.<BR/><BR/>So keep the impartial reporting coming Bob, I know I'm loving it!<BR/><BR/>In all this market turmoil, I am happy that I live in the island of Alberta. Things could be pretty damn frightening if we were connected in any way with the financial woes of the rest of the world.Warren (authentic)https://www.blogger.com/profile/04839291482639013810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-91374020691613534532008-10-26T11:19:00.000-07:002008-10-26T11:19:00.000-07:00kalua,I am going to assume you are a genuine poste...kalua,<BR/><BR/>I am going to assume you are a genuine poster and truly confused. <BR/><BR/>The simple answer to your question is that housing affordability is a tricky thing to figure out and right at the moment nobody really knows what is going to happen in Alberta (either economically or in real estate pricing). <BR/><BR/>If the price of oil stays at just under 70 bucks a barrel and the Canadian $ stays under eighty cents and the US recession proves to be at its worst right now then Alberta will stagnate and RE prices might be the same next year as this. If oil falls to 50 dollars a barrel (as some analysts believe) and the US dollar tanks as a result of absurd spending, sending our dollar up to say parity (as some analysts say) and the US recession turns into a global depression then downtown Calgary will once again be a ghost town and houses will sell for under a hundred thousand dollars next year. If OPEC cuts another 4 or 5 million barrels a day and forces oil back up to over a $100/barrel and the Canadian dollar drops to 65cents vs the dollar then Alberta might well boom even in a global downturn and housing prices might rise to $1,000,000 for a modest three bedroom house. (I hope I am exaggerating those price ranges to make my point but wouldn't want to bet on it.) <BR/><BR/>Since nobody has a clue what houses prices in Alberta may look like next year the market stagnates. Sellers won't take big haricuts, buyers are reluctant to buy, and banks are reluctant to lend. What market is being made is from people who are in it for the long haul and as long as it is affordable to them they aren't terribly price sensitive. These few buyers encourage real estate agents that the good times haven't ended and sellers that if they are patient enough they will find a buyer. <BR/><BR/>Meanwhile Edmonton and Calgary sales figures for this month encourage buyers to wait. You can see a rapid deceleration in the number of sales. If that trend continued for any length of time (three months or more) steep price reductions would become common and the race to the bottom would be on. So with the financial crisis and the sales figures in mind, and inventory levels rising a bit, buyers remain cautious and essentially nothing changes in the marketplace.<BR/><BR/>My suggestion to you would be to look for housing that meets the old banking definition (pre-toxic mortgages of all kinds) of prudent lending. That is 28% of your salary going to mortgage payments and no more than 38% of your pre-tax, pre-expenses income going to total housing costs. If you can't get a hosue for that, then rent. Save a bigger and bigger downpayment and hope the doomsters that post here are right. Following this strategy you will be better off next year than you are this year.notsquiddlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881985798762269045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-84850546041212878882008-10-26T11:16:00.000-07:002008-10-26T11:16:00.000-07:00If you assume that the futures markets are right a...If you assume that the futures markets are right and that Obama will be the next president. Then one can hopefully look to his senior economic advisor, Jason Furman, to what may be the new trend over the next 4 or more years. This is his testimony to senate on January 31, 2007:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.brookings.edu/views/testimony/furman20070131S.pdf" REL="nofollow">Obama's senior economic advisor on closing the fiscal gap</A><BR/><BR/>And yes, I think Obama is smart enough to understand the magnitude of the problem and to take appropriate actions, AND is a good enough orator to convince the American public why they need to chart a new course.Radley77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14825702358596382959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-76266081868322162332008-10-26T11:04:00.000-07:002008-10-26T11:04:00.000-07:00kalua,I think what we are seeing is that house pri...kalua,<BR/><BR/>I think what we are seeing is that house prices are falling but not returning to pre-boom levels.<BR/><BR/>I posted on this saying that there have been different factors in the run-up in prices <A HREF="http://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/2008/07/edmonton-what-has-driven-boom.html" REL="nofollow">here</A><BR/><BR/>Prices have fallen from 'ludicrous' to 'high' levels. But they have fallen . In July 2007 I posted on a condo conversion in SW Edmonton<BR/><A HREF="http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/weekend-open-thread.html?showComment=1184008860000#c6071416710460798054" REL="nofollow">link</A><BR/><BR/>MLS #E3096005 $174900 1/1<BR/>MLS #E3099077 $178900 1/1<BR/>MLS #E3096758 $204000 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3095703 $204900 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3097729 $204900 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3099866 $204900 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3089829 $219900 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3093518 $224500 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3098911 $226900 2/1<BR/>MLS #E3100720 $229000 3/1.5<BR/><BR/>Compared to now<BR/><BR/>138000 1/1<BR/>139968 1/1<BR/>140000 2/1<BR/>162500 2/1<BR/>159000 3/1.5<BR/>160000 3/1.5BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-12408090688982582012008-10-26T09:43:00.000-07:002008-10-26T09:43:00.000-07:00I have a question....There is all this talk about ...I have a question....There is all this talk about house prices falling etc..., but I don't really see this happening...Sure they have fallen somewhat, but homes are still way over priced, especially here in Alberta. Now my question is this. When will prices fall to where homes are reasonably priced if ever and how much would prices have to drop to be reasonable? I am so confused with all this. I am not sure if sellers are delusional and just won't come down in price because they feel they can get there asking price, or are people still buying at these ridiculous prices. I have had realtors and mortgage brokers tell me that Albertas economy is still hot and therefore prices wont come down much...Are they delusional too? Frick I am confused!!kaluahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16288886048375309103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-56714375657653027232008-10-26T09:20:00.000-07:002008-10-26T09:20:00.000-07:00Radley,The three things in your list are all linke...Radley,<BR/><BR/>The three things in your list are all linked to the gaining strength of the USD recently. You are wrong about gold being at 21 month lows. It was in this range last September. The 'Peter Schiff' asset classes have taken a hit recently but on the bigger picture ideas I listen. One is that the US economy is based on lopsided balance of trade and a service sector economy.<BR/><BR/>I have a question for you. What do you think the path is for the US to achieve the following:<BR/><BR/>Balance of trade<BR/>Balanced budget<BR/>Net savings<BR/><BR/>I do disagree with Schiff's views on government. Also while the gold standard sounds nice I would think the implementation period would be a little rough.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-67916083332195680642008-10-26T09:10:00.000-07:002008-10-26T09:10:00.000-07:00"What I'm afraid of is they're gonna keep doing wh..."What I'm afraid of is they're gonna keep doing what they've been doing - which the market hates, you can see the market hates it - because this is going to unleash rampant inflation around the world, rampant confusion in the currency markets and you're gonna have currencies gyrating all over the world," said Rogers, repeating that the central bankers were unleashing an "inflationary holocaust".<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ4dNtbT_u8&NR=1" REL="nofollow">Legendary investor Jim Rogers on the USD</A>worldclasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04578447684885648176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-59503857613222466392008-10-26T08:53:00.000-07:002008-10-26T08:53:00.000-07:00"Example of Peter Schiff being wrong:Wrong on gold..."Example of Peter Schiff being wrong:<BR/><BR/>Wrong on gold: Gold is now at 21 month low, down 33% this year.<BR/>Wrong on USD: Canadian dollar has now dropped 24% over the last year.<BR/>Wrong on US Treasuries: Bonds have yields much lower than last year." <BR/><BR/>-Radley<BR/><BR/><BR/>Haha, I like how you can call a man wrong before the sh*tstorm is over. Everything you described above has been due to fund liquidations that were unprecedented and liquidated into USD cash to meet various margin calls and investor demands.<BR/><BR/>When the pendulum swings hard one way (as it has for USD up, treasuries up, and gold spot price down) it will swing back soon with a vengeance and everyone left holding the bag with ONLY USD will be hurt. This is a great time to GET OUT OF THE USD....the last hurrah as the rise is FALSE and not based on the fundamentals of an economy that is productive and contributing more to the world than it consumes.<BR/><BR/>As for gold, I would like to see you try and buy some physical metal now Radley...good luck finding it. The spot "paper price" of gold is down due to the rallying USD... but the physical metal is very difficult to come by. Even the online dealer kitco.com has no more available except big gold bars for 378K Canadian. Which brings me to another thing... the price of gold has fallen, but converted to Canadian dollars the price of gold is the same or worth even more than when you bought the gold a month ago due to the free-fall of the CAD$.<BR/><BR/>Bottom line... the physical metal is VERY hard to come by....and you'll be paying a significant premium uncharacteristic of previous years over the "paper price" of gold. You think there aren't smart wealthy folk out there trading their overvalued USD$ for some physical metal stability?<BR/><BR/>Read more Radley before you declare victory on Peter Schiff (someone who has nailed what has been happening before it happened):<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024" REL="nofollow">USD doubted</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24528840-36418,00.html" REL="nofollow">Gold demand</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://blog.thestar.com.my/permalink.asp?id=18834" REL="nofollow">The last bubble....USD$</A>worldclasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04578447684885648176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-89599512046401201942008-10-25T22:49:00.000-07:002008-10-25T22:49:00.000-07:00-The credit crisis tsunami spreads pushing whole c...-<BR/>The credit crisis tsunami spreads pushing whole countries "under water".<BR/><BR/><I>It was not long ago the emerging markets were considered to be a safe haven from the financial market turmoil, causing an investment bubble that is losing steam at a rapid rate.<BR/><BR/>(...)<BR/><BR/>As investment in the emerging markets dries up, developing countries are also being hit by lower revenues from commodities as prices fall.<BR/><BR/>"Not only are these emerging market countries unable to borrow to roll over their debts, but we're also not seeing investor flows that might have otherwise have gone in to help finance that. So everyone is pulling back," said Win Thin, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.<BR/><BR/>He expects more countries to approach the IMF for help.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=e4191ae8-fdea-413d-994a-c4ab567922d5" REL="nofollow">Developing countries feel pinch of credit crunch</A><BR/><BR/>It also puts pressure on anyone highly indebted or leveraged.<BR/><BR/><I>Commodity markets have seen "wholesale liquidation of anything and everything people can get a hold of, including the kitchen sink," said Grandich.<BR/><BR/>While prices have fallen steeply in recent weeks as fears of a global recession have intensified, the selloff started much earlier.<BR/><BR/>"The credit crisis just accelerated the sell off and made it go faster," said Grandich. Prices were "already declining before hedge funds had to start selling because of the credit crisis," he said.</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/markets/commodity_prices/index.htm?postversion=2008102416" REL="nofollow">Commodities take a hit</A><BR/><BR/>And that is not good news for Canada as manifested in the value of our currency. Despite assurances to the contrary we will be pushed into significant recession. This is already reflected in the stock market.<BR/><BR/><I>"This is different," he said. "You've got a lot of people in the market, first of all, who shouldn't be there. And you've got a lot of fast-money people who think that this is the place they want to be, and they're reckless."</I><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=5734e8af-6a43-493f-9308-03595f46fe29" REL="nofollow">Once-in-a-lifetime crisis or market panic?</A><BR/><BR/>Panic is one thing while margin call is another. Forced sell-offs are not panics but the grim reality of leveraging.<BR/><BR/>I have to re-emphasize the above quote:<BR/><BR/><I><B>"You've got a lot of people in the market, first of all, who shouldn't be there. And you've got a lot of fast-money people who think that this is the place they want to be, and they're reckless."</B></I><BR/><BR/>It fits perfectly the state of Alberta R/E market. And R/E is illiquid.<BR/>-BADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08896288573355012563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-61284732400229553262008-10-25T20:40:00.000-07:002008-10-25T20:40:00.000-07:00why are realtorsso sensitivemust be close to losin...why are <A HREF="http://www.nwmar.com/realtor2.jpg" REL="nofollow">realtors</A><BR>so sensitive<BR/>must be close to losing it all i guess desperate times for desperate peoplesquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-33990797390214218692008-10-25T20:35:00.000-07:002008-10-25T20:35:00.000-07:00on further thought..perhaps the edmonton blog is h...on further thought..perhaps the edmonton blog is having an atomic meltdown as well..must suck to be a realtor now having placed hundreds of albertans into homes that they can not afford<BR/><BR/><I>"I apologize for the recent editing of a certain commentor's comments. <B>Squidly has been repeatedly impersonating a number of people including the author of the bubble blog and others. He has shown a constant disregard for the rules, and has been banned from this blog."</B></I> <BR/><BR/>never have and never will<BR/>and thats a threat i can live with<BR/>your too funny man <BR/>why would i want to post on a pro real estate blog<BR/>another meltdown just like trumanssquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-20562962552737628992008-10-25T18:56:00.000-07:002008-10-25T18:56:00.000-07:00btw sheldon there is one guy who posts under const...btw sheldon there is one guy who posts under constantly differing names here<BR/>and we all know who he is..do you realy think that he would let me post on his 100% censored blog<BR/>yet there i am<BR/>think about it....squidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7588496932754350322.post-17194676953100086712008-10-25T18:48:00.000-07:002008-10-25T18:48:00.000-07:00hey sheldon your wrong and somebody somewhere is h...hey sheldon your wrong and somebody somewhere is having a good laugh on you<BR/>i have posted perhaps 2 times on your blog more than 1 year ago<BR/><BR/>i respect your rights to run a pro real estate blog as it is one of your promotional tools and a means for you to generate a livable income <BR/><BR/>if i disagree with one ofyour posts i will usually place a link on the bubbleblog along with a mocking remark<BR/><BR/>i have no problem receiving credit for posts that you dont agree with<BR/>its just a blog..how ever there is a coward out there poaching other bloggers names..for what reasons i do not know<BR/><BR/>i know i tick you guys off and thats fine because you guys at times tick me off<BR/>where as i may not agree with the way that houses are sold<BR/>i do respect you as an individual<BR/>and i respect your right to run your blog as you see fit as its yours and at least you havent had a meltdown like the other guy did<BR/><BR/>i have left many positive comments <BR/>on the bubbleblog concerning your blog and i have left many more not so nice remarks when mistakes are made by you or in most cases the other authorsquidly77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05932628180799650933noreply@blogger.com